AN ESTIMATION OF MAXIMUM POTENTIAL STORM SURGE IN EASTERN HOKKAIDO USING AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BOGUSSING SCHEME

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  • 温帯低気圧ボーガスによる北海道東岸における可能最大高潮の推定
  • オンタイ テイキアツ ボーガス ニ ヨル ホッカイドウ トウガン ニ オケル カノウ サイダイ タカシオ ノ スイテイ

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Abstract

<p> In order to estimate the maximum potential storm surge (MPSS) at Nemuro and Hanasaki in eastern Hokkaido, Japan, we conducted track-ensemble experiments of an extratropical cyclone (“bomb cyclone” in December 2014), using an extratropical cyclone bogussing scheme based on the potential vorticity (PV) inversion technique. The extratropical cyclone bogussing scheme developed in this study could create a variety of initial conditions, in which a low-level cyclone with high PV anomaly was slightly shifted from the actual position. The MPSS at Nemuro facing deep water was about 1.5 m due to the effects of wind driven current and pressure drop. The MPSS at Hanasaki facing shallow water was about 1.1 m due to the effects of Ekman transport and pressure drop. It is concluded that the maximum sea-level anomalies in both Nemuro and Hanasaki were strongly influenced by slight differences of paths of the bomb cyclone.</p>

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