SURROGATE MODEL DEVELOPMENT FOR PREDICTION OF VESSEL FAILURE MODE AND MELT RELEASE CONDITIONS IN NORDIC BWR BASED ON MELCOR CODE

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Effectiveness of severe accident management strategy in Nordic BWR reactors depends on melt release conditions from the vessel, that recognized as the major source of uncertainty in the risk of containment failure in Nordic BWRs. The Risk Oriented Accident Analysis Methodology (ROAAM+) is used for quantification of the risk of containment failure in Nordic BWR, which relies on extensive use of computationally efficient surrogate models (SMs) for sensitivity and uncertainty analyses in risk quantification. The surrogate models provide computationally efficient approximations for the most important parameters of the computationally expensive full models. In the ROAAM+ framework the melt ejection surrogate model (MEM SM) provides initial conditions for the analysis of debris agglomeration and ex-vessel steam explosion which determine respective loads on the containment. This paper demonstrates an approach to the development and application of the melt ejection surrogate model based on the MELCOR code results. The post-processing of the MELCOR code results was performed in order to establish a connection between different stages of severe accident progression in ROAAM+ framework for Nordic BWRs.

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