Estimation of the economic im- pact of urban flood through the use of big data on inter-branch office transactions

• Shaofeng YANG

  Graduate School of Frontier Sciences, The University of Tokyo

• Yoshiki OGAWA

  Institute of Industrial Science, The University of Tokyo

• Koji IKEUCHI

  Graduate School of Engineering, The University of Tokyo

• Yuki AKIYAMA

  Center for Spatial Information Science, The University of Tokyo

• Ryosuke SHIBASAKI

  Center for Spatial Information Science, The University of Tokyo

Abstract

This paper quantitatively examines the economic impact of urban flood disasters in Tokyo on the supply chain. It accomplishes this task by using geographic information system (GIS) data on inter-firm transactions. First, we use flood simulation analysis data to identify firms that were unable to continue business operations due to flood damage. Second, we employ inter-firm transaction data to detect businesses that are related to affected firms. Subsequently, we discuss and analyze the industrial structure of the identified companies that have business associations with affected firms. Finally, we focus on the indirect economic damage caused to these companies and estimate the affected transaction amount in consideration of the magnitude of their linkages with directly affected firms. The present investigation reveals several interesting results. First, 19-29% of companies in Japan are associated with affected firms through business interests. This figure increases to nearly 50% when fifth-order firms are included: those companies connected to affected firms through the five shortest-link paths in the trading network. Many firms could thus be affected by a natural catastrophe even when they are actually located outside the core disaster area. In addition, the economic damage is estimated to be nearly 1.3% of Japan’s gross domestic product (GDP).

Journal

• Journal of Japan Society for Natural Disaster Science

  Journal of Japan Society for Natural Disaster Science 38 (S06), 185-199, 2019

  Japan Society for Natural Disaster Science

Keywords

• inter-firm transaction data
• supply chain
• spillover effects
• urban flood disaster
• flood simulation

Details

• CRID: 1390565134833729536
• NII Article ID: 130007806220
• NII Book ID: AN10165274
• DOI: 10.24762/jndsj.38.s06_185
• ISSN: 24341037
• ISSN: 02866021
• NDL BIB ID: 030044642
• Web Site: http://id.ndl.go.jp/bib/030044642
• Web Site: https://ndlsearch.ndl.go.jp/books/R000000004-I030044642
• Text Lang: en
• Data Source:
  • JaLC
  • NDL
  • CiNii Articles
  • KAKEN
  • Crossref
• Abstract License Flag: Disallowed