The Effects of Neighborhood Disorder, Social Cohesion and Crime Prevention Activity on the Perceived Risk of Victimization and Fear of Crime among Neighborhood Residents

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  • 近隣の秩序違反、住民の凝集性および近隣防犯活動が住民の被害リスク認知および犯罪不安に与える影響
  • 近隣の秩序違反,住民の凝集性および近隣防犯活動が住民の被害リスク認知および犯罪不安に与える影響 : マルチレベル分析による文脈効果の検討
  • キンリン ノ チツジョ イハン,ジュウミン ノ ギョウシュウセイ オヨビ キンリン ボウハン カツドウ ガ ジュウミン ノ ヒガイ リスク ニンチ オヨビ ハンザイ フアン ニ アタエル エイキョウ : マルチレベル ブンセキ ニ ヨル ブンミャク コウカ ノ ケントウ
  • An Examination of Contextual Effects Using Multi-level Modeling
  • マルチレベル分析による文脈効果の検討

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Abstract

<p>This research aims at examining the contextual effects of neighborhood disorder, social cohesion and crime prevention activity on the perceived risk of victimization and fear of crime among neighborhood residents. Upon reviewing several fear of crime analysis models that have considered the signs of disorder, indirect victimization, and risk interpretation in extant studies, the need for longitudinal surveys in multilevel framework has been realized; the current study fills this gap through the analysis of longitudinal surveys in order to dissect causal relationships and to properly separate the effects of individual/contextual factors.Two-wave postal surveys were conducted in 2010 (T1) and 2012 (T2) in 39 census tracts in a suburban city of Metropolitan Tokyo (n=585). Two outcome variables, perceived risk of victimization and fear of crime at T2, were regressed on direct/indirect victimization between T1 and T2 as well as individual and contextual predictors at T1. Hierarchical linear models revealed tract-level interactions that social cohesion alleviated the strength of contextual-relationships between disorder and perceived risk, which was consistent with the signs of disorder model. Tract-level interactions were also found where crime prevention activity such as patrol could reduce residents’ perceived risk and fear in a cohesive neighborhood. Meanwhile, cross-level interactions were found where tract-level disorder weakened the strength of individual-level association between perceived community crime prevention activity and perceived risk of crime. Finally, statistically significant temporal lag effects of indirect victimization on the perceived risk of crime and the effect of perceived risk on crime were also found, which supported both the indirect victimization and risk interpretation models. Policy implications and limitations of the current study were discussed.</p>

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