Bias correction of d4PDF using a moving window method and their uncertainty analysis in estimation and projection of design rainfall depth

• Watanabe Satoshi

  School of Engineering, the University of Tokyo, Japan

• Yamada Masafumi

  Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University, Japan

• Abe Shiori

  Mitsui Consultants, co., Ltd., Japan

• Hatono Misako

  Graduate School of Advanced Science and Engineering, Hiroshima University, Japan

Abstract

Design rainfall depth, which is a fundamental index used in river planning, was estimated by rainfall obtained from super-ensemble simulations with bias correction, and the future change under 4 degree warming was projected. The modifications of existing bias correction methods were proposed to resolve the issue of overfitting and gap in size between reference and super-ensemble simulation data. A bias correction approach considering the bias between the historical experiment, the reference data, and the change between the historical and future experiments separately was defined as two-pass bias correction. The two-pass bias correction was performed with a moving window method that calculated moving average for time period and rank-order statistics. The result indicated that the approach proposed in this study estimates the design rainfall depth with a small error compared to that calculated without the moving window. The moving window method effectively resolves the issue of overfitting. The projection indicated that the range of projection among sea-surface temperature (SST) patterns is equivalent to 25% of the design rainfall depth for most basins and 60% for certain specific basins. The results indicate the importance of the appropriate bias correction and the consideration of range among the SST patterns for super-ensemble simulation data.

Journal

• Hydrological Research Letters

  Hydrological Research Letters 14 (3), 117-122, 2020

  Japan Society of Hydrology and Water Resources (JSHWR) / Japanese Association of Groundwater Hydrology (JAGH) / Japanese Association of Hydrological Sciences (JAHS) / Japanese Society of Physical Hydrology (JSPH)

Keywords

• Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous)
• Water Science and Technology

Details

• CRID: 1390285697594803328
• NII Article ID: 130007902839
• DOI: 10.3178/hrl.14.117
• ISSN: 18823416
• Web Site: https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/hrl/14/3/14_117/_pdf
• Text Lang: en
• Data Source:
  • JaLC
  • Crossref
  • CiNii Articles
  • KAKEN
• Abstract License Flag: Disallowed