STUDY ON FUTURE CHANGES IN PRECIPITATION DUE TO TYPHOONS USING SELF-ORGANAIZING MAPS
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- SHIBATA Taiki
- 一般財団法人日本気象協会
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- KODAMA Mitsuyoshi
- 九州大学 大学院工学研究院
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- IDE Yoshihiko
- 九州大学 大学院工学研究院
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- HASHIMOTO Noriaki
- 九州大学 大学院工学研究院
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- YAMASHIRO Masaru
- 九州大学 大学院工学研究院
Bibliographic Information
- Other Title
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- 自己組織化マップを用いた台風来襲時における降水量の将来変化に関する検討
- ジコ ソシキカ マップ オ モチイタ タイフウ ライシュウジ ニ オケル コウスイリョウ ノ ショウライ ヘンカ ニ カンスル ケントウ
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Abstract
<p> Typhoon No. 19 in October 2019 which occurred floods in rivers around the Kanto region had people reaffirm the threat of extreme rainfall disasters caused by typhoons. In the future, if the sea surface temper-ature rises due to global warming, intensity of typhoons will increase and typhoons may cause more severe rainfall disasters. Therefore, it is important to understand the effects of global warming on future change in precipitation during typhoon period in considering coastal disaster prevention. In this study, the typhoons approaching or landing Kyushu were extracted from regional experiment of d4PDF with 20 km horizontal resolution. These typhoons were classified into 25 track patterns by using Self-organizing Maps which is suitable for pattern extraction. Subsequently, future changes in typhoon tracks and precipitation caused by typhoons of each pattern were calculated. As a result, the pattern of typhoon tracks become more diversified as global warming progresses than now. In the typhoon track patterns that passes on Kyushu island, daily precipitation in the 100-year return period will increase throughout Kyushu in the future.</p>
Journal
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- Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. B2 (Coastal Engineering)
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Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. B2 (Coastal Engineering) 76 (2), I_1129-I_1134, 2020
Japan Society of Civil Engineers
