Climate Change Impacts on Heavy Snowfall in Sapporo Using 5-km Mesh Large Ensemble Simulations

• Kawazoe Sho

  Faculty of Science, Hokkaido University

• Inatsu Masaru

  Faculty of Science, Hokkaido University Center for Natural Hazards Research, Hokkaido University

• Yamada Tomohito J.

  Center for Natural Hazards Research, Hokkaido University Faculty of Engineering, Hokkaido University

• Hoshino Tsuyoshi

  Faculty of Engineering, Hokkaido University

Abstract

Synoptic circulation patterns associated with heavy snowfall events in Sapporo are examined using large ensemble simulation with 60-km global climate experiments. For snowfall, a 5-km dynamically downscaled model from the 20-km regional simulation is utilized. To identify synoptic circulation patterns, self-organizing maps (SOMs) are applied, and their response to a warming climate is examined. The authors find that heavy snow events predominantly occur due to low pressure anomalies to the north/east of Hokkaido or over central Japan, and by high pressure anomalies over the Siberian continent. The 4 K warming climate shows robust decreases in heavy snowfall amounts associated with low pressure anomalies over central Japan and increases in heavy snowfall amounts under patterns with high pressure anomalies over Siberia. This is attributed to surface air temperature characteristics in future climates, as precipitation in the former with surface winds transporting warm, moist air from the south and east, develops predominantly above 0°C in the +4 K climate, while the latter, often resulting in intense snow band events, continues to be dominated by temperatures near or below zero.

Journal

• SOLA

  SOLA 16 (0), 233-239, 2020

  Meteorological Society of Japan

Keywords

• Atmospheric Science

Details

• CRID: 1391975276377368064
• NII Article ID: 130007950578
• DOI: 10.2151/sola.2020-039
• ISSN: 13496476
• Web Site: https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/sola/16/0/16_2020-039/_pdf
• Text Lang: en
• Data Source:
  • JaLC
  • Crossref
  • CiNii Articles
  • KAKEN
• Abstract License Flag: Disallowed