Global flood impacts on food consumption and risk of hunger through changes in crop yields.

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  • 世界を対象にした洪水による作物収量変化を通じた食料消費と飢餓リスクへの影響評価

Abstract

<p> There is a concern that the global warming will cause massive flood damage, but other literature does not assess the impact of floods on food consumption and hunger risks.The purpose of this paper is to clarify the impact of global floods on food consumption and hunger risk through changes in crop yields.As an improvement plan, we calculate the amount of food stockpiling required to reduce the impact. As a method, we will calculate food consumption and hunger risks using the CGE model. Then aggregate the results into 17 regions around the world to evaluate the impact of floods. As a result, the world population at risk of hunger will increase by about 11million (7.8 million to 13 million due to model uncertainty) and food calorie intake will decrease by 6.6 kcal/person/day (5.3 to 8.6 kcal/person/day) in 2030. Developing countries will be suffered severe damage. In Africa, the number of hungry people increased by about 5.5 million (340 to 590 million) and food calorie intake will decrease by 14 kcal/person/day (10 to 14 kcal/person/day). The amount of food stockpiling will be required 1.9 million tonnes (1.4 to 1.9 million tonne).</p>

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