国勢調査の「不詳」増加がもたらす統計地図の歪みの可視化  [in Japanese] Visualizing the Distortions of Statistical Maps Caused by the Increase in Unreported Cases in Japan's Population Census  [in Japanese]

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Abstract

<p>本研究のねらいは,国勢調査の「不詳」が増加したシナリオを立て,データから観測される指標の地域差がどのように本来の姿からずれてしまうのかを可視化することである.東京大都市圏の市区町村を対象に,(1)年齢階級別の比例按分と(2)属性間の不詳率比に基づく重み付け按分を用いて,2015年国勢調査による未婚率と短期居住率を不詳率の異なるシナリオ別に推計した.その結果,いずれの指標も不詳率が0のシナリオでは都心部で高く周辺部で低い地域差が明瞭であったが,不詳率が1.5倍や2倍に増加したシナリオで推計した地図を見ると,そういった地域差は縮小・消失して見えることが可視化された.このことは,今後さらに「不詳」が増加することで,疑似的な地域差が生じる蓋然性が高まることを意味する.不詳率の高い項目や地域において国勢調査を利用する場合には,結果の慎重な解釈や補正データの利用が求められる.</p>

<p>The purpose of this study was to visualize how regional differences observed from the population census deviate from their "true" forms due to an increase in unreported (missing) cases by considering multiple scenarios in which there was an increase in the number of unreported cases in the census. For municipalities in the Tokyo metropolitan area, we estimated the percentages of unmarried people and those with short-term residence from the 2015 Population Census for different scenarios of unreported rates using 1) proportional distribution by age-group and 2) weighted distribution based on the ratio of unreported rates among attributes. In both indicators, the results showed that there were clear regional differences with high and low percentages in urban centers and suburban areas, respectively, in a scenario where the unreported rate became zero. However, when we examined the maps estimated under scenarios where the unreported rates increased by 1.5- or 2-fold, such regional differences appeared to be reduced or eliminated. This means that further increases in the number of unreported cases will increase the probability of spurious regional differences in the future. Careful interpretation of the results and use of statistically corrected data are required when analyzing the census data for items and regions with high unreported rates.</p>

Journal

  • E-journal GEO

    E-journal GEO 16(1), 1-14, 2021

    The Association of Japanese Geographers

Codes

  • NII Article ID (NAID)
    130007975739
  • Text Lang
    JPN
  • Data Source
    J-STAGE 
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