DEVELOPMENT OF PROBABILISTIC RISK EVALUATION METHOD WITH SURROGATE-MODELED NUMERICAL SIMULATIONS
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- DEGUCHI Shota
- 九州大学大学院 工学府建設システム工学専攻
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- ASAI Mitsuteru
- 九州大学大学院 工学研究院社会基盤部門
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- UEKI Hiroto
- ハイドロ総合技術研究所
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- TAKEUCHI Yuki
- ハイドロ総合技術研究所
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- KAWASAKI Koji
- ハイドロ総合技術研究所
Bibliographic Information
- Other Title
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- 数値解析のサロゲートモデリングによる確率論的災害リスク評価手法の開発
Abstract
<p>With Nankai Trough Earthquake expected to strike in the near future while natural disasters are getting intensified lately, their risk evaluations are urgently being called for. Since it is, in general, very challenging to provide precise damage estimations to natural phenomena, which are often accompanied by countless uncertainties, probabilistic approaches are commonly adopted to account for them. Nowadays, numerical simulations are widely applied for disaster predictions. Although they support high accuracy in terms of anticipating, their computational costs per unit calculation are extremely large, and hence, not suitable for developing probabilistic discussions in practice. This study focuses on a singular value decomposition-based surrogate model, which expresses the numerical analysis approximately. This paper made a modification on the surrogate model by newly introducing kernel ridge regression. The accuracy and effectiveness of the proposed method were examined through an inundation simulation and a tsunami simulation.</p>
Journal
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- Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. A2 (Applied Mechanics (AM))
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Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. A2 (Applied Mechanics (AM)) 76 (2), I_565-I_576, 2020
Japan Society of Civil Engineers
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Keywords
Details 詳細情報について
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- CRID
- 1390849931334472320
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- NII Article ID
- 130007980148
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- ISSN
- 21854661
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- Text Lang
- ja
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- Data Source
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- JaLC
- Crossref
- CiNii Articles
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- Abstract License Flag
- Disallowed