Risk Assessment and Possible Adaptation of Potato Production in Hokkaido to Climate Change Using a Large Number Ensemble Climate Dataset d4PDF

• Sugawara Kuniyasu

  Graduate School of Science, Hokkaido University

• Inatsu Masaru

  Faculty of Science and Center for Natural Hazards Research, Hokkaido University

• Shimoda Seiji

  Hokkaido Agricultural Research Center, Memuro Research Station, National Agriculture and Food Research Organization

• Murakami Keach

  Hokkaido Agricultural Research Center, National Agriculture and Food Research Organization

• Hirota Tomoyoshi

  Faculty of Agriculture, Kyushu University

Abstract

While global warming may expand suitable places for potato cultivation in cold regions, it may reduce the yield due to the increase of hot days during the tuber growth period. This study evaluated the effects of global warming on potato cultivation over Hokkaido by dynamically-downscaled ensemble experiments called d4PDF and assessed applicability of possible adaptive measures. In this study, we define the suitable area based on the accumulated temperature and deduced a relationship between the potato yield per unit area and the number of hot days (maximum temperature > 28°C) from crop statistic data. In a warming environment with 2K or 4K increase in global-mean temperature relative to the present climate (1981-2010), the accumulated temperatures likely satisfied the criterion on potato production almost over Hokkaido. The risk of growth delay due to cold weather was projected to reduce. However, hot days in the tuber growth period would increase, reducing potato yield by 7% in a plus 2-K climate and 16% in a plus 4-K climate. This risk of yield loss would not be avoidable by moving up planting by 30 days, and the development of varieties that are tolerant to 31-33°C would be a possible way to adaptation.

Journal

• SOLA

  SOLA 17 (0), 24-29, 2021

  Meteorological Society of Japan

Keywords

• Atmospheric Science

Details

• CRID: 1390850092191473152
• NII Article ID: 130007988247
• DOI: 10.2151/sola.2021-004
• ISSN: 13496476
• Web Site: https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/sola/17/0/17_2021-004/_pdf
• Text Lang: en
• Data Source:
  • JaLC
  • Crossref
  • CiNii Articles
  • KAKEN
• Abstract License Flag: Disallowed