北西太平洋の2005-2018年における現業の台風強度予報の評価と誤差解析

• HUANG Xiaogang

  College of Meteorology and Oceanography, National University of Defense Technology, China

• PENG Xudong

  Unit 31010, PLA, China

• FEI Jianfang

  College of Meteorology and Oceanography, National University of Defense Technology, China

• CHENG Xiaoping

  College of Meteorology and Oceanography, National University of Defense Technology, China

• DING Juli

  College of Meteorology and Oceanography, National University of Defense Technology, China

• YU Dandan

  Unit 31010, PLA, China

書誌事項

タイトル別名

• Evaluation and Error Analysis of Official Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasts during 2005–2018 for the Western North Pacific

抄録

 This study systematically evaluates the accuracy, trends, and error sources for western North Pacific tropical cyclone intensity forecasts between 2005 and 2018. The study uses homogeneous samples from tropical cyclone (TC) intensity official forecasts issued by the China Meteorological Administration (CMA), Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), and Regional Specialized Meteorological Center Tokyo-Typhoon Center (RSMC-Tokyo). The TC intensity forecast accuracy performances are as follows: 24–48 h, JTWC > RSMC-Tokyo > CMA; 72 h, JTWC > CMA > RSMC-Tokyo; and 96–120 h, JTWC > CMA. Improvements in TC intensity forecasting are marginal but steady for all three centers. The 24–72 h improvement rate is approximately 1–2 % yr⁻¹. The improvement rates are statistically significant at the 95 % level for almost half of the verification times from 0–120 h. The three centers tend to overestimate weak TCs over the northern South China Sea, but strong TCs are sometimes underestimated over the area east of the Philippines. The three centers generally have higher skill scores associated with forecasting of rapid weakening (RW) events than rapid intensification (RI) events. Overall, the three centers are not skillful in forecasting RI events more than three days in advance. Fortunately, RW events could be forecasted five days in advance with an accuracy order of CMA > RSMC-Tokyo > JTWC.

収録刊行物

• 気象集誌. 第2輯

  気象集誌. 第2輯 99 (1), 139-163, 2021

  公益社団法人 日本気象学会

キーワード

• tropical cyclone intensity forecast
• accuracy analysis
• trend analysis
• error source

詳細情報

• CRID: 1390287297542999808
• NII論文ID: 130007992425
• NII書誌ID: AA00702524
• DOI: 10.2151/jmsj.2021-008
• ISSN: 21869057
• ISSN: 00261165
• NDL書誌ID: 031301093
• Web Site: https://ndlsearch.ndl.go.jp/books/R000000004-I031301093
• Web Site: https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/jmsj/99/1/99_2021-008/_pdf
• 本文言語コード: en
• データソース種別:
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  • NDL
  • Crossref
  • CiNii Articles
• 抄録ライセンスフラグ: 使用不可