中国における新エネルギー自動車普及拡大対策に関する計量経済分析

• 張 鈺鑫

  長岡技術科学大学エネルギー・環境工学専攻

• 李 志東

  長岡技術科学大学情報・経営システム工学専攻

書誌事項

タイトル別名

• Econometric Study on Measures of Expand the Spread of New Energy Vehicles in China

抄録

In this study, we quantitatively elucidated the diffusion mechanism of China's new energy vehicle (NEV) and conducted a simulation analysis on diffusion measures. We found that the relative total cost, development of charging infrastructure, and NEV sales ratio regulation were factors affecting the spread of NEV. Moreover, as a result of estimating lithium ion battery price using learning curve theory, it was confirmed that the rate of decrease of the price was 18.1% every time the cumulative production volume doubled. As a result of simulation analysis, in the reference scenario, even if all subsidies are abolished from 2023, sales volume will expand steadily due to the introduction of The passenger Cars Corporate Average Fuel Consumption and New Energy Vehicle Credit Regulation(dual-credit policy), but the target for 2030 cannot be achieved. In order to achieve the target, it is effective to reduce the number of points per NEV and increase the NEV credit ratio. The sales share of passenger NEV in total passenger vehicles is expected to reach 39.5% by 2030, achieving the target.

収録刊行物

• エネルギー・資源学会論文誌

  エネルギー・資源学会論文誌 42 (3), 119-128, 2021

  一般社団法人 エネルギー・資源学会

キーワード

• China's New Energy Vehicle
• Learning Curve
• Dual-credit policy
• Econometric Study

詳細情報

• CRID: 1390569457941308800
• NII論文ID: 130008036860
• DOI: 10.24778/jjser.42.3_119
• ISSN: 24330531
• 本文言語コード: ja
• データソース種別:
  • JaLC
  • CiNii Articles
• 抄録ライセンスフラグ: 使用不可