PROPOSAL OF SLOPE FAILURE PROBABILITY EVALUATION FORMULA USING COVARIANCE STRUCTURE ANALYSIS OF SLOPE CHART AND COLLAPSE HISTORY

• MASAKI Tanto

  法政大学大学院 デザイン工学研究科都市環境デザイン工学専攻

• SAKAI Hisakazu

  法政大学 デザイン工学部都市環境デザイン工学科

• KAJITANI Yoshio

  香川大学 創造工学部

Bibliographic Information

Other Title

• 斜面カルテと崩壊来歴の共分散構造分析による斜面崩壊確率評価式の提案

Abstract

 In Japan, slope disasters occur on an almost annual basis because there are many mountainous areas in which torrential rains and earthquakes act as triggers. In addition to direct damage to buildings in the immediate vicinity, slope disasters also cause secondary disasters: cutting off areas due to the disruption of infrastructure. To mitigate the damage caused by slope disasters, it is important that measures addressing dangerous slopes be adopted before the disaster occurs. This study combines data from multiple sources, including the slope charts managed by the Niigata Prefecture where the Mid Niigata prefecture Earthquake in 2004 and the Niigataken Chuetsu-oki Earthquake in 2007 occurred, the earthquake motion intensity index data, precipitation amount data, geological maps, soil maps, vegetation maps, and other spatial information data. From both geological and statistical perspectives, the characteristics of the damage caused by slope collapse are clearly understood. Using the latent variables obtained from the covariance structure analysis of multiple explanatory variables, we created a logistic model with high explanatory power for the observed values of slope failure. We have applied the obtained model to other disasters and clarified that it is necessary to consider the variables to be used, the size of the applicable hazard, and other conditions in order to construct a more general model.

Journal

• Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. A1 (Structural Engineering & Earthquake Engineering (SE/EE))

  Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. A1 (Structural Engineering & Earthquake Engineering (SE/EE)) 77 (4), I_384-I_393, 2021

  Japan Society of Civil Engineers

Keywords

• earthquake
• the slope failure probability evaluation formula
• covariance structure model

Details

• CRID: 1390288778747273856
• NII Article ID: 130008067152
• DOI: 10.2208/jscejseee.77.4_i_384
• ISSN: 21854653
• Web Site: https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/jscejseee/77/4/77_I_384/_pdf
• Text Lang: ja
• Data Source:
  • JaLC
  • Crossref
  • CiNii Articles
  • KAKEN
• Abstract License Flag: Disallowed