EXAMINATION OF CASUALTY EASTIMATION MODELS BASED ON THE VICTIM INFORMATION IN CASE OF THE GREAT EAST JAPAN EARTHQUAKE AT ISHINOMAKI CITY, MIYAGI PREFECTURE

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  • 東日本大震災における犠牲者情報に基づく人的被害予測関数の検討 ー宮城県石巻市平野部の事例ー

Abstract

<p> In this study, in order to apply the victim information of the Great East Japan Earthquake provided by the Miyagi Prefectural Police Headquarters to the human casualty function, the relationship between the inundation depth and the ratio of drowning victims based on the victim’s address and the corpse location was examined at the central part of Ishinomaki City, Miyagi Prefecture. As a result, it is clarified that occurrence of human casualties was considered to be related to not only inundation depth but also the land use patterns. In addition, we developed human casualty functions by using GLM and GLMM. As a result, it was clarified that it is important to consider the land use pattern as a variable for predicting human casualties.The fragility model based on the victim’s address examined in this paper can be applied for disaster prevention plan. In contrast, the fragility model based on the corpse location can be applied for lifesaving and search for missing persons when disaster happen.</p>

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