PROBABILISTIC TYPHOON MODEL BASED ON THE PASSED TYPHOON TRACK DATA WITH MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
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- NOBUOKA Hisamichi
- 茨城大学 理工学研究科(工学野)都市システム工学専攻
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- SASOH Ryotaro
- 木更津市 都市整備部
Bibliographic Information
- Other Title
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- 最低中心気圧と通過台風トラック資料に基づく確率的台風モデルの基礎的検討
- サイテイ チュウシン キアツ ト ツウカ タイフウ トラック シリョウ ニ モトズク カクリツテキ タイフウ モデル ノ キソテキ ケントウ
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Abstract
<p> To predict extreme storm surges with those probability due to extreme typhoons, this study examined capacity of the probabilistic typhoon models which developed by use of the passed typhoon best track in and around the target points of Tokyo, Ise and Osaka Bay in Japan. Though obtained results by the developed model were unclear on the relationship between passage target ranges and anormal storm surges, anormal storm surges became larger in each bay than those by the models which were developed by using whole typhoon best track data. In case the proposed probabilistic typhoon model takes the limit of central pressure degreasing over an open sea, the model is able to calculate realistic anormal storm surges.</p>
Journal
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- Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. B2 (Coastal Engineering)
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Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. B2 (Coastal Engineering) 77 (2), I_61-I_66, 2021
Japan Society of Civil Engineers