How Will the Capital Cost Influence the Integration of CCS Coal Plants into the Chinese Low-carbon Optimal Power Expansion Plan by 2050?

• Yi Ye

  Finished Ph.D program without the degree, Dep. of Nuclear Eng.& Mgmt., University of Tokyo

• Gyanwali Khem

  Department of Mechanical Engineering, Institute of Engineering, Tribhuvan University

• Komiyama Ryoichi

  Department of Nuclear Engineering and Management, the University of Tokyo

• Fujii Yasumasa

  Department of Nuclear Engineering and Management, the University of Tokyo

• Yamaguchi Akira

  Department of Nuclear Engineering and Management, the University of Tokyo

抄録

As the worldwide largest electricity producer and national highest CO₂ emitting sector, the Chinese power sector is facing considerable challenges to meet the current tremendous and future growing electricity need, while addressing the emission issues. As the primary CO₂ release source in the power system, coal-fired power dominates the capacity mix with 59% of the total in 2019. Therefore, it is urgent for the coal power industry to speed up reducing carbon emission. Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is a promising technology for coal power plants to mitigate CO₂ release. However, considerable uncertainty exists in its capital cost because of the technical immaturity. This work models China’s optimal power expansion plan by 2050 under the 2℃ emission target with a dynamic high spatial-temporal model and investigates the capital-cost impacts on power planning. The result shows that: (1) CCS need to be applied, and its capital cost must be lowered to maintain coal-fired power capacity, otherwise, its capacity ratio will have to be reduced to 9.48% of the national total by 2050 (1700 $/kW scenario) to meet the 2℃ emission target; (2) renewables would dominate the power generation by 52.6%~62.8%, while their variability problem must be handled with increasing power transmission, flexible operation of ramp generators, pumped-hydro storage and power curtailment.

収録刊行物

• エネルギー・資源学会論文誌

  エネルギー・資源学会論文誌 42 (6), 368-384, 2021

  一般社団法人 エネルギー・資源学会

キーワード

• coal-fired power plant
• CCS
• capital cost
• power expanding plan
• 2 degrees Celsius

詳細情報

• CRID: 1390571481509019136
• NII論文ID: 130008115428
• DOI: 10.24778/jjser.42.6_368
• ISSN: 24330531
• 本文言語コード: en
• データソース種別:
  • JaLC
  • CiNii Articles
  • KAKEN
• 抄録ライセンスフラグ: 使用不可