Seasonality of mortality under a changing climate: a time-series analysis of mortality in Japan between 1972 and 2015

• Lina Madaniyazi

• Yeonseung Chung

• Yoonhee Kim

• Aurelio Tobias

• Chris Fook Sheng Ng

• Xerxes Seposo

• Yuming Guo

• Yasushi Honda

• Antonio Gasparrini

• Ben Armstrong

• Masahiro Hashizume

抄録

Ambient temperature may contribute to seasonality of mortality; in particular, a warming climate is likely to influence the seasonality of mortality. However, few studies have investigated seasonality of mortality under a warming climate. Daily mean temperature, daily counts for all-cause, circulatory, and respiratory mortality, and annual data on prefecture-specific characteristics were collected for 47 prefectures in Japan between 1972 and 2015. A quasi-Poisson regression model was used to assess the seasonal variation of mortality with a focus on its amplitude, which was quantified as the ratio of mortality estimates between the peak and trough days (peak-to-trough ratio (PTR)). We quantified the contribution of temperature to seasonality by comparing PTR before and after temperature adjustment. Associations between annual mean temperature and annual estimates of the temperature-unadjusted PTR were examined using multilevel multivariate meta-regression models controlling for prefecture-specific characteristics. The temperature-unadjusted PTRs for all-cause, circulatory, and respiratory mortality were 1.28 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.27–1.30), 1.53 (95% CI: 1.50–1.55), and 1.46 (95% CI: 1.44–1.48), respectively; adjusting for temperature reduced these PTRs to 1.08 (95% CI: 1.08–1.10), 1.10 (95% CI: 1.08–1.11), and 1.35 (95% CI: 1.32–1.39), respectively. During the period of rising temperature (1.3 °C on average), decreases in the temperature-unadjusted PTRs were observed for all mortality causes except circulatory mortality. For each 1 °C increase in annual mean temperature, the temperature-unadjusted PTR for all-cause, circulatory, and respiratory mortality decreased by 0.98% (95% CI: 0.54–1.42), 1.39% (95% CI: 0.82–1.97), and 0.13% (95% CI: − 1.24 to 1.48), respectively. Seasonality of mortality is driven partly by temperature, and its amplitude may be decreasing under a warming climate.

収録刊行物

• Environmental Health and Preventive Medicine

  Environmental Health and Preventive Medicine 26 (1), 69-, 2021-07-03

  Springer Science and Business Media LLC

キーワード

• Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health
• General Medicine

詳細情報

• CRID: 1360007127993847296
• NII論文ID: 210000159171
• DOI: 10.1186/s12199-021-00992-8
• ISSN: 13474715
• ISSN: 1342078X
• Web Site: https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1186/s12199-021-00992-8.pdf
• Web Site: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s12199-021-00992-8/fulltext.html
• Web Site: https://search.jamas.or.jp/link/ui/2022141541
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