COVID-19 infection spread and human mobility
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Abstract
Given that real-world infection-spread scenarios pose many uncertainties, and predictions and simulations may differ from reality, this study explores factors essential for more realistically describing an infection situation. It furnishes three approaches to the argument that human mobility can create an acceleration of the spread of COVID-19 infection and its cyclicality under the simultaneous relationship. First, the study presents a dynamic model comprising the infection-mobility trade-off and mobility demand, where an increase in human mobility can cause infection explosion and where, conversely, an increase in new infections can be made temporary by suppressing mobility. Second, using time-series data for Japan, it presents empirical evidence for a stochastic trend and cycle in new infection cases. Third, it employs macroeconometrics to ascertain the feasibility of our model's predictions. Accordingly, from March 2020 to May 2021, the sources of COVID-19 infection spread in Japan varied significantly over time, and each change in the trend and cycle of new infection cases explained approximately half the respective variation.
Journal
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- Journal of the Japanese and International Economies
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Journal of the Japanese and International Economies 64 101195-, 2022-06
Elsevier
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Keywords
Details 詳細情報について
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- CRID
- 1050294045368076288
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- NII Article ID
- 210000188869
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- NII Book ID
- AA10701721
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- ISSN
- 10958681
- 08891583
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- HANDLE
- 20.500.14094/90009173
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- Text Lang
- en
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- Article Type
- journal article
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- Data Source
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- IRDB
- Crossref
- CiNii Articles
- KAKEN