A Two-Tiered Approach to Long-Range Climate Forecasting

DOI Web Site 被引用文献4件
  • L. Bengtsson
    Max-Planck-Institut fur Meteorologie, Hamburg, Germany
  • U. Schlese
    Max-Planck-Institut fur Meteorologie, Hamburg, Germany
  • E. Roeckner
    Max-Planck-Institut fur Meteorologie, Hamburg, Germany
  • M. Latif
    Max-Planck-Institut fur Meteorologie, Hamburg, Germany
  • T. P. Barnett
    Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California at San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093
  • N. Graham
    Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California at San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093

抄録

<jats:p>Long-range global climate forecasts were made by use of a model for predicting a tropical Pacific sea-surface temperature (SST) in tandem with an atmospheric general circulation model. The SST is predicted first at long lead times into the future. These ocean forecasts are then used to force the atmospheric model and so produce climate forecasts at lead times of the SST forecasts. Prediction of seven large climatic events of the 1970s to 1990s by this technique are in good agreement with observations over many regions of the globe.</jats:p>

収録刊行物

  • Science

    Science 261 (5124), 1026-1029, 1993-08-20

    American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)

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