A numerical analysis of population dynamics of the sand lance (<i>Ammodytes personatus</i>) in the eastern Seto Inland Sea, Japan

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<jats:title>ABSTRACT</jats:title><jats:p>The Japanese sand lance (<jats:italic>Ammodytes personatus</jats:italic>) population in the Seto Inland Sea shows large fluctuations every few years. Its recruitment to the fishery resources is much more dependent on the survival rate of 0‐age fish than is the case for other fish species because 0‐age fish directly recruit to next‐year spawning adults. Since the 0‐age fish population depends on its larval population, which is easily influenced by natural and human impacts, high larval mortality due to predation by adults and high dispersion of larvae by wind‐driven currents from spawning grounds to other locations can have very important effects on stock fluctuations. A numerical model of population dynamics of the sand lance in the eastern Seto Inland Sea was developed that focuses on wind‐induced transport and adult predation of the larvae. The model successfully simulated the two‐year periodic fluctuation and was consistent with actual fluctuations in fishery catches. It suggests that the various coefficients given in the model are appropriate to explain the actual population dynamics of the sand lance. The model shows that adult predation on the larvae plays a very important role in the two‐year periodic fluctuation, and the maximum predation rate is estimated to be ten individuals per day. Wind‐induced transport modifies the impact of this predation. Variances in the two‐year periodic fluctuation become smaller with weaker westerly wind velocity. The appropriate transport rates from Bisan Strait and the Harima‐nada Sea are estimated to be 0.04 d<jats:sup>‐1</jats:sup> and 0.01 d<jats:sup>‐1</jats:sup>, respectively.</jats:p>

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