オフィス市場の土地利用転換 : ランダム・パネルプロビットモデルによる推計 [in Japanese] Dynamics of Office Market in Tokyo : Estimation of Random Panel Probit Model [in Japanese]
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The purposes of this paper were to extract the signals used to determine the market selection with respect to an office investment, and to make apparent areas that will, going forward, continue to maintain strong fundamentals (potential value) in the office investment market. In regards to area selection, this paper focused on the phenomenon where, following the collapse of the economic bubble, many office buildings had to be put to different uses out of necessity. This paper also focused on the changes in real estate investment returns and building use by area. Specifically, factors affecting changes in building use were extracted by applying a panel random probit model on the 3,134 areas surveyed under the national census from 1991, when the collapse of the real estate bubble began and onward. Further, based on the factors that were extracted per the above, areas that have strong survival rates as office markets were selected. As a result of estimating the panel random probit model, which focused on the changes in building use, it has been found that the conversion from office use to residential use has been largely brought about by the index which measures the extent of excess in rents when a building is converted to residential use as opposed to using it as an office building. This finding conformed to the result that was indicated in a series of analyses that began with Wheaton ( 1982 ) as follows: return differentials effect land use conversions. Moreover, 303 areas predicted to have strong fundamentals for office investments have been extracted using the ratio of office rents to residential rents.
- Reitaku international journal of economic studies
Reitaku international journal of economic studies 20(2), 25-44, 2012-09