Making decisions

著者

• Lindley, D. V. (Dennis Victor)

書誌事項

Making decisions

D.V. Lindley

Wiley, c1985

2nd ed

• : pbk.

注記

Includes index

内容説明・目次

巻冊次

ISBN 9780471908036

内容説明

This book looks at the problems involved in decision-making and argues that there is only one logical way to make a decision. By the use of three basic principles - assigning probabilities to the uncertain events; assigning utilities to the possible consequences and choosing that decision that maximises expected utility - decisions can be reached more efficiently and with less disagreement. It shows that only maximisation of expected utility leads to sensible decision-making.

目次

Decisions and Uncertain Events. A Numerical Measure for Uncertainty. The Laws of Probability. A Numerical Measure for Consequences. The Utility of Money. Bayes' Theorem. Value of Information. Decision Trees. The Assessment of Probabilities and Utilites. An Appreciation. Appendix. Answers to Exercises. Glossary of Symbols. Subject Index.

巻冊次

: pbk. ISBN 9780471908081

内容説明

Making Decisions Second Edition D.V. Lindley Formerly Professor of Statistics, University College London This book looks at the problems involved in decision-making and argues that there is only one logical way to make a decision. By the use of three basic principles assigning probabilities to the uncertain events; assigning utilities to the possible consequences; and choosing that decision that maximizes expected utility decisions can be reached more efficiently and with less disagreement. It shows that only maximization of expected utility leads to sensible decision-making. This extensively revised second edition uses only elementary mathematics and will be of interest to all those concerned with decision-making and its consequences. Since his retirement from University College London in 1977 Professor Lindley has held visiting appointments at Berkeley, University of Florida, George Washington University, University of Sao Paulo, University of Wisconsin, Monash University, Australia, and University of Canterbury, New Zealand. Contents Decisions and uncertain events A numerical measure for uncertainty The laws of probability A numerical measure for consequences The utility of money Bayes' Theorem Value of information Decision trees The assessment of probabilities and utilities An appreciation Appendix Answers to exercises Glossary of Symbols Subject Index

目次

Decisions and Uncertain Events. A Numerical Measure for Uncertainty. The Laws of Probability. A Numerical Measure for Consequences. The Utility of Money. Bayes' Theorem. Value of Information. Decision Trees. The Assessment of Probabilities and Utilites. An Appreciation. Appendix. Answers to Exercises. Glossary of Symbols. Subject Index.

「Nielsen BookData」 より

詳細情報

• NII書誌ID(NCID): BA00256697
• ISBN:
  • 0471908037
  • 0471908088
• LCCN: 85012010
• 出版国コード: uk
• タイトル言語コード: eng
• 本文言語コード: eng
• 出版地: London ; New York
• ページ数/冊数: xi, 207 p.
• 大きさ: 24 cm
• 分類:
  • LCC : QA279.4
  • DC19 : 519.5/42
• 件名:
  • LCSH : Statistical decision