The Management of uncertainty : approaches, methods, and applications
著者
書誌事項
The Management of uncertainty : approaches, methods, and applications
(NATO ASI series, ser. D . Behavioural and social sciences ; no. 32)
Nijhoff, c1986 , Distributors for the United States and Canada, Kluwer Academic, c1986
大学図書館所蔵 全28件
  青森
  岩手
  宮城
  秋田
  山形
  福島
  茨城
  栃木
  群馬
  埼玉
  千葉
  東京
  神奈川
  新潟
  富山
  石川
  福井
  山梨
  長野
  岐阜
  静岡
  愛知
  三重
  滋賀
  京都
  大阪
  兵庫
  奈良
  和歌山
  鳥取
  島根
  岡山
  広島
  山口
  徳島
  香川
  愛媛
  高知
  福岡
  佐賀
  長崎
  熊本
  大分
  宮崎
  鹿児島
  沖縄
  韓国
  中国
  タイ
  イギリス
  ドイツ
  スイス
  フランス
  ベルギー
  オランダ
  スウェーデン
  ノルウェー
  アメリカ
注記
"Published in cooperation with NATO Scientific Affairs Division."
"Proceedings of the NATO Advanced Research Workshop on 'Socio-Technical Approaches to the Management of Uncertainty' Maratea, Italy, 1982"--T.p. verso
Includes bibliographies and index
内容説明・目次
内容説明
For thirty years, the literature on decision-making and planning has been divided into two camps : work premised on rational models of choice and work designed to discredit such models. The sustained critic of fully rational decision-making theories has al ready a long history and a constant message to deliver : in practice, consequential decision-making hardly fulfills the canons of perfect rationality. There is also evidence that decision-making and planning are not unitary processes. Although the concept of "decision-making" connotes the idea of a single process, making a single choice involves a complex of processing tasks : structuring the problem, finding alternatives worth considering, deciding what information is relevant, assessing various consequences, and a variety of others. The aim of this volume is to bring together and try to inter relate some of the concepts and relevant knowledge from various disciplines concerned with one important aspect of this complex process : the management of uncertainty. It is hardly necessary to reiterate the case made by numerous authors about our changing and increasingly uncertain world. Suffice it to say here that it is uncertainty about the future, and in many cases about the past and the present also, which makes decision-making and planning so difficul t. The management of uncertainty may be defined as the way in which uncertainty is treated and processed in decision-making.
目次
1. Introductory Essay.- 2. The Strategic Choice Approach.- Preview.- The Strategic Choice Approach to Managing Uncertainty.- A Perspective on Robustness.- Reflections on Uncertainty in Strategic Choice.- 3. Multicriteria Decision Aids.- Preview.- Multicriteria Decision Aid for the Management of Uncertainty.- 4. Metagame and Hypergame.- Preview.- Modelling Political Uncertainty Using the Improved Metagame Analysis Algorithm.- Hypergame Theory and Methodology: The Current “State of the Art”.- 5. Related Topics.- Preview.- Uncertainty in the Negotiation and Mediation of Environmental Disputes.- Risk and Uncertainty in Public and Occupational Health.- Probability and Uncertainty.- 6. Interrelationships.- Preview.- A Perceptual-Behavioral Perspective of Decision-Making Under Uncertainty.- Uncertainty, Complexity and Decision-Making Processes.- Conflict Analysis Techniques in Strategic Choice.- Conflict and Strategic Choice.
「Nielsen BookData」 より