A treatise on probability

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Bibliographic Information

A treatise on probability

（The collected writings of John Maynard Keynes, v. 8）

Macmillan , Cambridge University Press for Royal Economic Society, 1973

  • : uk
  • : us

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Note

First published in 1921

Includes bibliographical references (p. 471-506) and index

Description and Table of Contents

Volume

: uk ISBN 9780333107331

Description

'...among the glories of modern publishing...edited with exemplary authority and lack of fuss...' - London Review of Books This definitive edition contains all Keynes's published writings, including less accessible articles and letters to the press, as well as previously unpublished speeches, government memoranda and minutes, drafts and economic correspondence. No other writer in this century has done more than Maynard Keynes to change the ways in which economics is taught written. No other economist has done more to change the ways in which nations conduct their economic and financial affairs. The Collected Writings are indispensable to all economists. They are a vital reference work for students, academics and professionals alike.
Volume

: us ISBN 9780521221009

Description

Originally written as a Fellowship Dissertation for King's College, Cambridge, between 1906 and 1909, Keynes's Treatise represents his earliest large-scale writing. Rewritten for publication during 1909-12 and 1920-1, it was the first systematic work in English on the logical foundations of probability for 55 years. As it filled an obvious gap in the existing theory of knowledge, it received an enthusiastic reception from contemporaries on publication. Even today amongst philosophers, the essence of Keynes's approach to probability is established. This edition reprints, with Keynes's own corrections, the first edition of the Treatise. An introduction by Professor Richard Braithwaite, formerly Knightbridge Professor of Moral Philosophy in Cambridge and a close friend of Keynes from the time he was finishing this book, sets Keynes's ideas in perspective.

Table of Contents

  • Part I. Fundamental Ideas: 1. The meaning of probability
  • 2. Probability in relation to the theory of knowledge
  • 3. The measurement of probabilities
  • 4. The principle of indifference
  • 5. Other methods of determining probabilities
  • 6. The weight of arguments
  • 7. Historical retrospect
  • 8. The frequency theory of probability
  • 9. The constructive theory of Part I summarised
  • Part II. Fundamental Theories: 10. Introductory
  • 11. The theory of groups, with special inference, and logical priority
  • 12. The definitions and axioms of inference and probability
  • 13. The fundamental theorems of necessary inference
  • 14. The fundamental theorems of probable inference
  • 15. Numerical measurement and approximation of probabilities
  • 16. Observations on the theorems of Chapter 14 and their developments including testimony
  • 17. Some problems in inverse probability, including averages
  • Part III. Induction and Analogy: 18. Introduction
  • 19. The nature of argument by analogy
  • 20. The value of multiplication of instances, or pure induction
  • 21. The nature of inductive argument continued
  • 22. The justification of these methods
  • 23. Some historical notes on induction notes on Part III
  • Part IV. Some Philosophical Applications of Probability: 24. The meanings of objective chance, and of randomness
  • 25. Some problems arising out of the discussion of chance
  • 26. The application of probability to conduct
  • Part V. The Foundations of Statistical Inference: 27. The nature of statistical inference
  • 28. The law of great numbers
  • 29. The use of a priori probabilities for the prediction of statistical frequency - the theorems of Bernoulli, Poisson, and Tchebycheff
  • 30. The mathematical use of statistical frequencies for the determination of probability a posteriori - the methods of Laplace
  • 31. The inversion of Bernoulli's theorem
  • 32. The inductive use of statistical frequencies for the determination of probability a posteriori - the methods of Lexis
  • 33. Outline of a constructive theory.

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