Housing and neighborhood dynamics : a simulation study
Author(s)
Bibliographic Information
Housing and neighborhood dynamics : a simulation study
（Harvard economic studies, v. 157）
Harvard University Press, 1985
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Note
Bibliography: p. 255-263
Includes index
Description and Table of Contents
Description
This book assesses the effects of spatially concentrated programs for housing and neighborhood improvement. These programs provide direct assistance to low-income property owners in an attempt to arrest neighborhood decline and encourage revitalization.
The authors used the Harvard Urban Development Simulation Model (HUDS) in evaluating these programs. HUDS, a large-scale computer model, represents the process of housing rehabilitation, the production and consumption of housing services, household moving decisions, and other determinant of neighborhood change. The model simulates the behavior of approximately 80,000 individual households in two hundred residential neighborhoods of various quality levels. Unlike more aggregate models of urban development, HUDS has the capacity to identify how specific housing policies affect individual households as well as particular neighborhoods.
Since program evaluations are no better than the models on which they are based, the authors provide sufficient detail to permit those readers primarily interested in the policy analysis to assess the methodology and to understandhow the policies are represented in the model; a more technical discussion of the model is then presented in appendixes.
Although the simulations focus on policies that induce central-city property owners to upgrade their properties and thus stimulate revitalization, many of the authors' findings are relevant to larger issues of urban development. For example, the analysis of how housing rehabilitation subsidies affect the investment behavior of nonsubsidized property owners provides insights about the link between initial upgrading and sustained neighborhood improvement. The analysis also demonstrates how differences in location, household, and housing stock characteristics affect a particular neighborhood's responsiveness to a common policy initiative.
Table of Contents
* Introduction * The Harvard Urban Development Simulation Model * Simulated and Actual Housing Market Characteristics * Program Design and Analytics * Impacts of Subsidies on Target Neighborhoods * Impacts of Spatially Concentrated Policies * Gentrification and Displacement * Summary of Findings and Directions for New Research Appendixes * History of the Modeling Project and Comparison with Other Models * Employment Location and Land Use Accounting * Demographic Change, Job Change, and Moving Behavior * The Demand and Tenure Choice Submodels * The Supply Sector and the Role of Expectations * New Construction and Structure Conversion * Determination of Residence Location and Structure Rents
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