Judgmental forecasting

著者

書誌事項

Judgmental forecasting

edited by George Wright & Peter Ayton

Wiley, c1987

大学図書館所蔵 件 / 全12件

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注記

Includes index

内容説明・目次

内容説明

Concerned with both the academic and practical aspects of judgmental forecasting, this book presents an overview of judgmental forecasting for a multidisciplinary audience. This effect has been achieved by drawing together a collection of specially commissioned chapters from a range of contributors including many well-known names in the field. The book includes sections on the psychology of individual judgment; judgment from groups of individuals; the use of multiregression techniques and the psychology of scenarios.

目次

  • THE PSYCHOLOGY OF INDIVIDUAL JUDGMENT: On the Adequacy of Judgmental Forecasts
  • Beliefs and Expectations as Causes of Judgmental Bias
  • Assessing Human Judgment: Has it Been Done, Can it Be Done, Should it Be Done? Subjective Estimation of Precise and Vague Uncertainties
  • The Psychology of Forecasting
  • JUDGMENT FROM GROUPS OF INDIVIDUALS: Integrating Group Judgments in Subjective Forecasts
  • Delphi Enquiry Systems
  • Forecasting Methods for Conflict Situations
  • Bridging the Gap between Forcasting and Action
  • USE OF MULTIPLE REGRESSION TECHNIQUES: Social Judgment Theory and Forecasting
  • Linear Models as Decision Aids in Insurance Decision Making: The Case of Estimation of Automobile Insurance Claims
  • Expert Use of Forecasts: Bootstrapping and Linear Models
  • THE PSYCHOLOGY OF SCENARIOS: The Use of Mental Models for Generating Scenarios
  • Judgmental Handling of Energy Scenarios: A Psychological Analysis and Experiment.

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