A simulation approach to the study of human fertility
著者
書誌事項
A simulation approach to the study of human fertility
（Publications of the Netherlands Interuniversity Demographic Institute (N.I.D.I.) and the Population and Family Study Centre (C.B.G.S), v. 5）
M. Nijhoff Social Sciences Division , Distributors for North America, Kluwer Boston, c1978
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注記
A revision of the author's thesis (Ph. D)--Australian National University, 1976
Bibliography: p. [201]-215
内容説明・目次
内容説明
This book is an amended and somewhat shorter version of my doctoral thesis which I submitted to the Australian National University in 1976, and subsequently edited at the Netherlands Interuniversity Demographic Institute in 1977. The work falls naturally into two parts. The first is concerned with the construction and validation of a model, and the second with its application as an experimental tool. In the first part, comprising Chapters One to Four, an examination of historical and contemporary models of population growth led to the decision to study changes in fertility by means of a biological micro simulation model. The reasons supporting the choice of such a model were discussed, and a search of the literature produced the data to be used as model input. The effects of varying the input were examined and then the model output was tested against Hutterite data. The main emphasis of the second part of the work, comprising Chapters Five to Seven, was the testing of the effect on the fertility of one society of variations in the duration of the post partum period of non-susceptibility to conception, and in the level of infant and child mortality. Further simulations were performed to discover the impact on fertility of the use of contraception to attain different family sizes, both with and without the additional effect of infant and child mortality.
目次
1. Introduction.- 1.1. Types and uses of models.- 1.2. Simulation models.- 1.3. The development of population models.- 1.4. The Monte Carlo technique and microsimulation.- 2. The Model.- 2.1. Introduction.- 2.2. The choice of a model.- 2.3. The choice of suitable input data.- 2.4. Preliminary testing of the model.- 3. Biological Input.- 3.1. Introduction.- 3.2. The probability of conception.- 3.2.1. Fecundability.- 3.2.2. Foetal loss.- 3.3. Temporary and permanent sterility.- 3.3.1. The limits of reproductive life.- 3.3.2. Primary and secondary sterility.- 3.3.3. Gestation.- 3.3.4. Post partum amenorrhoea.- 4. Refinement of the Model.- 4.1. Introduction.- 4.2. Variations in temporary and permanent infecundability.- 4.2.1. Gestation and post partum amenorrhoea.- 4.2.2. Sterility and menopause.- 4.3. Variations in the probability of conception.- 4.4. The simulation of Hutterite fertility.- 5. The Effects on Fertility of Breastfeeding and Sexual Abstinence.- 5.1. The relationship between the durations of breastfeeding and post partum amenorrhoea.- 5.2. The rationale for prolonged periods of lactation and post partum sexual abstinence.- 5.3. The theoretical effects on fertility of breastfeeding and sexual abstinence.- 5.4. The simulation of Yoruba fertility.- 6. The Physiological Relationship between Fertility and Infant and Child Mortality.- 6.1. Introduction.- 6.2. The estimation of infant and child mortality.- 6.3. The effect of infant and child mortality on fertility.- 7. The Effects on Fertility of Contraception and Family Size Ideals.- 7.1. Introduction.- 7.2. Models of the effect on fertility of the use of contraception.- 7.3. The simulation of Yoruba fertility incorporating family size ideals.
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