OPEC and the price of petroleum : theoretical considerations and empirical evidence
著者
書誌事項
OPEC and the price of petroleum : theoretical considerations and empirical evidence
(Studies in international economics and institutions)
Springer-Verlag, c1989
- gw
- us
大学図書館所蔵 全14件
  青森
  岩手
  宮城
  秋田
  山形
  福島
  茨城
  栃木
  群馬
  埼玉
  千葉
  東京
  神奈川
  新潟
  富山
  石川
  福井
  山梨
  長野
  岐阜
  静岡
  愛知
  三重
  滋賀
  京都
  大阪
  兵庫
  奈良
  和歌山
  鳥取
  島根
  岡山
  広島
  山口
  徳島
  香川
  愛媛
  高知
  福岡
  佐賀
  長崎
  熊本
  大分
  宮崎
  鹿児島
  沖縄
  韓国
  中国
  タイ
  イギリス
  ドイツ
  スイス
  フランス
  ベルギー
  オランダ
  スウェーデン
  ノルウェー
  アメリカ
注記
Includes bibliographical references
内容説明・目次
内容説明
1. 1. Oil price fluctuations and their impact on economic performance Drastic oil price fluctuations have been a major characteristic of the world petroleum market since the beginning of the seventies. The oil crises of 1973n4 and 1979/80 were followed by a dramatic drop of the oil price during the first two quarters of 1986. Starting from a level less than 2 $ per barrel in 1972, the spot market price of Arabian Light crude oil increased to some 35 $ in 1980, then slowly decreased, and finally fell to 13 $ in 1986 (annual averages). If monthly data are considered, the peaks of the oil price movement look even more dramatic. In December 1980 Arabian crude was traded for more than 40 $ a barrel, and in August 1986 the price was down at 8 $ (see Fig. 1. 1). 40 30 20 10 r o 84 88 76 80 72 Figure 1. 1: The spot market price of Saudi-Arabian Light crude oil! ! Data are taken from the Petroleum Economist and the OPEC Bulletin, various issues. 2 After the Second World War petroleum has become the most important energy resource.
During the fifties and sixties its price was relatively low compared to other energy 2 sources like coal and firewood and it tended to drive them out of the market.
目次
1. Introduction.- 1.1. Oil price fluctuations and their impact on economic performance.- 1.2. Plan of the study.- 2. The world petroleum market: history and institutions.- 2.1. Petroleum as an exhaustible resource.- 2.1.1. Some basic concepts.- 2.1.2. Measurement of reserves.- 2.1.3. The development of production and reserves.- 2.1.4. The regional distribution of consumption, production, and reserves.- 2.2. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.- 2.3. The price of petroleum.- 2.3.1. Long-term contracts with fixed prices.- 2.3.2. The spot market.- 2.3.3. Netback contracts.- 2.3.4. Futures markets for crude oil and petroleum products.- 2.3.5. Petroleum prices and scarcity.- 2.4. A brief history of the world petroleum market.- 2.4.1. The oil market before OPEC.- 2.4.2. Alteration of property rights.- 2.4.3. New contractual relationships.- 2.4.4. OPEC and the oil price in the seventies and eighties: A chronology of events.- 2.5. Summary of some stylised facts.- 3. The price of petroleum in economic theory.- 3.1. Types of oil market models.- 3.2. The economic theory of exhaustible resources.- 3.2.1. The Ricardian approach.- 3.2.2. A simple model of exhaustibility.- 3.2.3. Different market structures.- 3.2.4. The resource-exporting country.- 3.2.5. Uncertainty.- 3.2.6. Testing Hotelling's model.- 3.3. Parameter changes in the standard model.- 3.3.1. The size of the resource stock.- 3.3.2. Changing property rights.- 3.3.3. Cartelisation.- 3.3.4. The backstop technology.- 3.3.5. Additional variables.- 3.4. Approaches without exhaustibility.- 3.4.1. The impact of GDP fluctuations.- 3.4.2. The backward-bending supply curve.- 3.4.3. Static monopoly theory.- 3.4.4. Lagged demand reactions.- 3.4.5. Downstream activities.- 3.4.6. Some empirical models of oil price determination.- 3.4.7. Is OPEC a cartel ?.- 3.5. An evaluation.- 4. An intertemporal model of OPEC's pricing policy.- 4.1. Basic assumptions.- 4.1.1. Consumption, foreign assets, and the resource stock.- 4.1.2. Demand for petroleum.- 4.1.3. Petroleum supply from non-OPEC sources.- 4.1.4. The literature on dynamic monopoly models.- 4.2. Necessary conditions of optimality.- 4.3. The consumption path.- 4.4. Accumulation of foreign assets and the existence of an optimal solution.- 4.5. The price path.- 4.5.1. The long-run equilibrium price.- 4.5.2. The effects of parameter changes.- 4.5.3. Second-order conditions.- 4.5.4. Behaviour near the equilibrium.- 4.5.5. A numerical example.- 4.6. The equilibrium in the long run.- 4.7. An evaluation of the model and its results.- 5. A simplified version of the model.- 5.1. The assumptions.- 5.2. Optimality conditions.- 5.3. The optimal pricing policy.- 5.3.1. The long-run equilibrium.- 5.3.2. Behaviour near the equlibrium.- 5.3.3. The long-run optimal path.- 5.4. Imperfect information and the occurrence of price shocks.- 5.4.1. The first and second oil shocks.- 5.4.2. Declining oil prices in the eighties.- 5.4.3. Heterogeneity of OPEC and endogenous price cycles.- 5.5. Theoretical results and the empirical oil price cycle: a comparison.- 6. An econometric model of the world petroleum market.- 6.1. Objectives of the investigation.- 6.2. OPEC and oil price fluctuations.- 6.2.1. A rule-of-the-thumb approach to determining the oil price.- 6.2.2. The interaction of supply and demand.- 6.3. Empirical results.- 6.3.1. Specification of equations.- 6.3.1.1. Demand.- 6.3.1.2. Non-OPEC supply.- 6.3.1.3. The price of petroleum.- 6.3.2. Estimation results.- 6.3.2.1. Concavity and convexity.- 6.3.2.2. Demand for petroleum.- 6.3.2.3. Non-OPEC supply of petroleum.- 6.3.2.4. OPEC behaviour and price adjustments.- 6.3.3. Summary of the empirical results.- 6.4. Optimal pricing policies in the empirical model.- 6.4.1. Misspecification of adjustment processes.- 6.4.2. Adjustment processes and long-run demand and supply functions.- 6.4.3. Long-run equilibrium prices and quantities.- 7. Final remarks.- 7.1. Summary and conclusions.- 7.2. A remark on policy implications.- 7.3. Areas of future research.- Appendix: Optimal control theory.- A.1. The problem.- A.2. Necessary and sufficient conditions.- A.3. Saddle points and the stability of optimal solutions.- References.
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