Business cycles : theory, history, indicators, and forecasting
著者
書誌事項
Business cycles : theory, history, indicators, and forecasting
（Studies in business cycles, v. 27）
University of Chicago Press, 1992
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注記
"National Bureau of Economic Research, Conference on Research in Business Cycles"--P. facing t.p
Includes bibliographical references (p. [535]-576) and indexes
内容説明・目次
内容説明
This volume presents the most complete collection available of the work of Victor Zarnowitz, a leader in the study of business cycles, growth, inflation, and forecasting.. With characteristic insight, Zarnowitz examines theories of the business cycle, including Keynesian and monetary theories and more recent rational expectation and real business cycle theories. He also measures trends and cycles in economic activity; evaluates the performance of leading indicators and their composite measures; surveys forecasting tools and performance of business and academic economists; discusses historical changes in the nature and sources of business cycles; and analyzes how successfully forecasting firms and economists predict such key economic variables as interest rates and inflation.
目次
Acknowledgments Preface I: Theories and Evidence 1: Macroeconomics and Business Cycles: An Overview 2: Recent Work on Business Cycles in Historical Perspective 3: Facts and Factors in the Modern Evolution of U.S. Economic Fluctuations 4: Cyclical Aspects of Cost and Price Movements 5: Research during the First 50 Years of the National Bureau II: History and Measurement 6: How Trends and Fluctuations Are Observed, Modeled, and Simulated: An Introduction 7: Business Cycles and Growth 8: The Regularity of Business Cycles 9: Econometric Model Simulations and the Cyclical Characteristics of the Economy III: Indicators 10: Cyclical Indicators: Structure, Significance, and Uses 11: Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators 12: Major Macroeconomic Variables and Leading Indexes Phillip Braun IV: Forecasting 13: On Short-Term Predictions of General Economic Conditions 14: An Analysis of Annual and Multiperiod Quarterly Aggregate Forecasts 15: The Accuracy of Individual and Group Forecasts 16: Rational Expectations and Macroeconomic Forecasts 17: Consensus and Uncertainty in Economic Prediction Louis A. Lambros 18: The Record and Improvability of Economic Forecasting References Author Index Subject Index
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