Leading economic indicators : new approaches and forecasting records
著者
書誌事項
Leading economic indicators : new approaches and forecasting records
Cambridge University Press, 1992, c1991
- : pbk
大学図書館所蔵 件 / 全9件
-
該当する所蔵館はありません
- すべての絞り込み条件を解除する
注記
"First paperback edition 1992"--t.p. verso
内容説明・目次
内容説明
Developed fifty years ago by the National Bureau of Economic Research, the analytic methods of business cycles and economic indicators enable economists to forecast economic trends by examining the repetitive sequences that occur in business cycles. The methodology has proven to be an inexpensive and useful tool that is now used extensively throughout the world. In recent years, however, significant new developments have emerged in the field of business cycles and economic indicators. This volume contains twenty-two articles by international experts who are working with new and innovative approaches to indicator research. They cover advances in three broad areas of research: the use of new developments in economic theory and time-series analysis to rationalise existing systems of indicators; more appropriate methods to evaluate the forecasting records of leading indicators, particularly of turning point probability; and the development of new indicators.
目次
- Preface
- 1. Editors' introduction
- Part I. New Concepts and Methods: 2. Toward a theory of leading indicators Frank de Leeuw
- 3. A time-series framework for the study of leading indicators Salih N. Neftci
- 4. A probability model of the coincident economic indicators James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson
- 5. An international application of Neftci's probability approach for signalling growth recessions and recoveries using turning point indicators Michael P. Niemira
- 6. On predicting the stage of the business cycle Roy H. Webb
- 7. Bayesian methods for forecasting turning points in economic time series: sensitivity of forecasts to asymmetry of loss structures Arnold Zellner and Chansik Hong
- 8. New developments in leading economic indicators Geoffrey H. Moore
- Part II. Forecasting Records and Methods of Evaluation: 9. Forecasting cyclical turning points: the record in the past three recessions Stephen K. McNees
- 10. Turning point predictions, errors, and forecasting procedures Hermon O. Stekler
- 11. Forecasting peaks and troughs in the business cycle: on the choice and use of appropriate leading indicator series Stephen J. Silver
- 12. Using a consensus of leading economic indicators to find right ball park for real GNP forecasts Edward F. Renshaw
- 13. Some Australian experience with leading economic indicators Allan P. Layton
- 14. Turning point prediction with the composite leading index: an exante analysis Francis X. Diebold and Glenn D. Rudebusch
- 15. Forecasting recessions under the Gramm-Rudman-Hollings law Victor Zarnowitz and Geoffrey H. Moore
- 16. Leading indicators of inflation Howard L. Roth
- Part III. New Economic Indicators: 17. Commodity prices as a leading indicator of inflation James M. Boughton and William H. Branson
- 18. A leading indicator of inflation based on interest rates Susmita Dasgupta and Kajal Lahiri
- 19. Using composite leading indicators of consumption to forecast sales and to signal turning points in stock market Michael P. Niemira
- 20. Economic indicators for Australia's service sector Ernst A. Boehm
- 21. Purchasing management survey data: their value as leading indicator Philip A. Klein and Geoffrey H. Moore
- 22. An agenda for inventories input to leading composite index Feliks Tamm
- Index.
「Nielsen BookData」 より