Economies in transition : a system of models and forecasts for Germany and Poland
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Bibliographic Information
Economies in transition : a system of models and forecasts for Germany and Poland
（Contributions to economics）
Physica-Verlag , Springer-Verlag, c1993
- : Heidelberg
- : New York
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Includes bibliographical references
Description and Table of Contents
Description
It has been quite a challenge for econometricians to model economies in transition. There is no textbook at hand to master that task. Economic theory cannot be applied without adaptations to the characteristic change of a whole economic system. Regression analysis, taking into account past economic development only, is of limited use for the econometrician. Having econometric models at hand would be very helpful for an active economic policy to guide the transition process. Various scenarios representing strategies could be simulated in their consequences to the economy. The best alternative in respect to the government's objectives could be chosen. This very situation has born the idea of co-operation between L6dz and Frankfurt in 1990. There are problems of this kind in Poland and in Germany. The German situation is somewhat better than that of Poland as a relatively small centrally planned economy is being united with a substantial social market economy taking over a lot of the burden of the former mismanagement. Thus, it might be possible to share the experience in modelling the united Germany and preparing forecasts with the Polish model builders. In addition, it would be prOfitable for both model establishing teams to link their models in order to improve the forecasting potential. Moreover, the Polish partner has a broad national and international experience in econometric model building which makes co-operation smooth and fruitful. His experience in modelling countries with a centrally planned economy would also help to master the transition problems.
Table of Contents
1. On the concept of a system of econometric forecasting and simulation models for the period of transition towards the market economies.- 1.1 Introduction.- 1.2 Towards a system of economic forecasts and policy simulations for the transition period.- 1.3 On a system of macro models.- 1.4 The system of economic forecasts and policy simulations.- 1.5 The numerical techniques.- 1.6 Further research plans.- References.- 1. Germany.- 2. The system of models.- 2.1 Introduction.- 2.2 The model for West Germany.- 2.2.1 Commodity market.- 2.2.2 Money market.- 2.2.3 Labour market.- 2.2.4 Technical details.- 2.3 The model for East Germany.- 2.4 The model for East-West trade.- 2.5 The equations of the system of models.- 2.5.1 Model for West Germany.- 2.5.2 Model for East Germany.- 2.5.3 Model for East-West trade.- 2.6 The structural equations of West Germany.- 2.6.1 Commodity market.- 2.6.2 Money market.- 2.6.3 Labour market.- 2.6.4 Regression results.- 2.7 Future improvements.- 2.8 List of variables.- 3. The basic simulation.- 3.1 Introduction.- 3.2 Assumptions.- 3.3 Selected results.- 3.4 Some comments.- 3.5 Tables (values).- 3.5.1 Endogenous variables.- 3.5.2 Exogenous variables.- 3.6 Tables (growth rates).- 3.6.1 Endogenous variables.- 3.6.2 Exogenous variables.- 3.7 Selected Graphs.- 3.7.1 Endogenous variables.- 3.7.2 Exogenous variables.- References.- Appendices.- Appendix 1. ETAS, Conception and features of an econometric model generator.- 1. Conception of the program system ETAS.- 2. Summary of features of version 1.0.- 3. Enhancements in version 1.1.- Appendix 2. On portfolio models of the Federal Republic of Germany.- 1. Introduction.- 2. Aspects of portfolio theory.- 3. Empirical portfolio models.- 4. Critical evaluation.- 5. Suggestions for further research.- 6. Literature.- 2. Poland.- 4. Quarterly model WK-91 of the Polish economy in transition.- 4.1 Introduction.- 4.2 Data base, extraneous information and estimation techniques.- 4.3 General structure of the model.- 4.3.1 Macro aggregates in the quarterly model - general framework.- 4.3.2 General assumptions on functioning of the economy in transition.- 4.3.3 Major macro-relations.- 4.4 Specification and empirical results for major blocks of variables.- 4.4.1 Final demand components.- 4.4.2 Wages, incomes and money expenditures of households.- 4.4.3 Activities and financial position of enterprises in production and services sector.- 4.4.4 Foreign trade.- 4.4.5 The banking system activitities.- 4.4.6 State budget.- 4.4.7 Prices.- 4.4.8 Employment.- 4.5 The model as a system. First conclusions.- References.- 5. Dynamic expectations in the quarterly model of the Polish economy.- 5.1 Introduction.- 5.2 Expectations in the model.- 5.3 Rational expectations algorithm.- 5.4 Estimation and base solution of the model.- 5.5 Results of policy simulations.- 5.6 Conclusions.- References.- 6. Data base for the quarterly model WK-91 of the Polish economy.- 6.1 General remarks.- 6.2 The problem of generating unobservable macro aggregates.- 6.2.1 Derivation of quarterly time series for macro aggregates for Poland.- References.- Appendices.- Appendix 1. List of variables for the quarterly model WK-91 of the Polish economy.- Appendix 2. The structure of the quarterly model WK-91 of the Polish economy.- Appendix 3. Excerpt from the quarterly data bank for the period 1989.1-1991.2.
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