Predictive behavior : an experimental study
著者
書誌事項
Predictive behavior : an experimental study
（Lecture notes in economics and mathematical systems, 403）
Springer-Verlag, c1993
- : gw
- : us
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注記
Bibliography: p. [225]-227
内容説明・目次
内容説明
This book describes a series of laboratory experiments (with
a total of 167 independent subjects) on forecasting
behavior. In all experiments, the time series to be
forecasted was generated by an abstract econometric model
involving two or three artificial exogenous variables. This
designprovides an optimal background for rational
expectations and least-squares learning. As expected, these
hypotheses do not explain observed forecasting behavior
satisfactorily. Some phenomena related to this lack of
rationality are studied: Concentration on changes rather
than levels,underestimation of changes and overvaluation of
volatile exogenous variables. Some learning behavior is
observed. Finally, some aspects of individual forecasts such
as prominence of "round" number, dispersion, etc.,are
studied.
目次
0. Literature Review.- 0.1 Empirical Studies and Experimental Studies.- 0.2 Hypotheses to Be Tested.- 0.3 Description of Selected Empirical Studies.- 0.4 Description of Selected Experimental Studies.- 0. 5 Concluding Comments on the Literature.- 1. Rationality in Presence of Exogenous Variables.- 1.1 Fully Rational and Least-Squares-Learning Predictions.- 1.2 Predictions Based on Misspecified Models.- 2. Experimental Design and Notation.- 2.1 Experimental Design.- 2.2 Notation.- 3. Aggregate Forecasts.- 3.1 Forecast Error and Deviations from Rational Predictions.- 3.2 Least-Squares Learning.- 3.3 Some Non-Rational Features of Forecasts.- 3.4 "Trend-Underestimating Predictions".- 3.5 Learning Behavior?.- 3.6 The Influence of Single Variables.- 3.7 Psychological Factors.- 3.8 Concluding Remarks on Average Forecasts.- 4. Sum Results on Individual Forecasts.- 4.1 Comparison to Various Prediction Concepts.- 4.2 Non-Rational Features of Forecasts.- 4.3 Learning Behavior.- 4.4 Regression on Single Exogenous Variables.- 4.5 Psychological Factors.- 5. Features of Individual Forecasts.- 5.1 The Questionnaires.- 5.2 Categories of Individual Forecasts.- 5.3 Preference for "Round" Numbers.- 5.4 The Time Spent for Forecasting.- 5.5 The Dispersion of Forecasts.- 6. Conclusion.- 7. Appendix.- 7.1 Mean Absolute Deviations from Various Prediction Concepts.- 7.2 Regression on Single Exogenous Variables.- 8. References.
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