CiNii 図書 - Computing risk for oil prospects : principles and programs

The petroleum industry is enduring difficult financial times because of the continuing depressed price of crude oil on the world market. This has caused major corporate restructuring and reductions in staff throughout the industry. Because oil exploration must now be done with fewer people under more difficult economic constraints, it is essential that the most effective and efficient procedures be used. "Computing Risks for Oil Prospects" describes how prospect risk assessment - predicting the distribution of financial gains or losses that may result from the drilling of an exploration well - can be done using objective procedures implemented on personal computers. The procedures include analyses of historical data, interpretation of geological and geophysical data, and financial calculations to yield a spectrum of the possible consequences of decisions. All aspects of petroleum risk assessment are covered, from evaluating regional resources, through delineating an individual prospect, to calculation of the financial consequences of alternative decisions and their possible results. The bottom lines are given both in terms of the probable volumes of oil that may be discovered and the expected monetary returns. Statistical procedures are linked with computer mapping and interpretation algorithms, which feed their results directly into routines for financial analysis. The programmes in the included library of computer programmes are tailored to fit seamlessly together, and are designed for ease and simplicity of operation. The two diskettes supplied are IBM compatible. Full information on loading is given in appendix A - Software Installation. Risk 1 diskette contains data files and executable and Risk 2 diskette contains only executables. The authors contend that the explorationist who develops a prospect should be involved in every facet of its analysis, including risk and financial assessments. This book provides the tools necessary for these tasks.

Introduction - getting things rolling. Part 1 The challenge of risk assessment: the nature of exploration
regional hydrocarbon endowment. Part 2 Field size distributions: estimating "Q"
oil field populations
statistics of frequency distributions
caution - future discoveries. Part 3 Success, sequence and gambler's ruin: success ratios and dry hole probabilities. Part 4 Estimating discovery size from prospect size: statistical correlations between properties
estimating volumes from seismic maps. Part 5 Outcome probabilities and success ratios: geology and drilling results. Part 6 Modelling prospects: appeal of the simulation approach
steps in Monte Carlo simulation. Part 7 Mapping properties and uncertainties: computer contouring
how contour maps are made. Part 8 Discriminating discoveries and dry holes: combining geological variables
exploring magyarstan target area
the intermediate stage
the mature stage. Part 9 Forecasting cash flow for a prospect: financial overview
discounted net cash flow analysis. Part 10 The worth of money: a dry hole versus a discovery. Part 11 RATs, decision tables and trees: RATs link outcomes with risk
how RATs treat information
constructing decision tables
decision trees
overview and a look to the future. Part 12 Bringing it together: risking the Roskoff prospect
Roskoff prospect financial analysis
some final points.

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Computing risk for oil prospects : principles and programs

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