Decision analysis for management judgment
著者
書誌事項
Decision analysis for management judgment
Wiley, c1998
2nd ed
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注記
Includes bibliographical references and index
内容説明・目次
内容説明
In an increasingly complex world, decision analysis has a major role to play in helping decision makers to gain a greater understanding of the problems they face, particularly as research has shown that the decision-making process can often go wrong. This book aims to make decision analysis accessible to its largest group of potential users: managers and administrators in business and public sector organizations. It shows how decision analysis can be applied so that difficult decisions can be made with greater insight and confidence, and challenges the adequacy of making decisions on the basis of intuition alone. Drawing on ideas from a variety of disciplines, including psychology, management, science and statistics, the book shows how judgement and statistical techniques can be combined to provide a structured and defensible basis for decision making.
目次
- Decisions Involving Multiple Objectives
- How People Make Decisions Involving Multiple Objectives
- Introduction to Probability
- Decision Making Under Uncertainty
- Decision Trees and Influence Diagrams
- Applying Simulation to Decision Problems
- Revising Judgments in the Light of New Information
- Biases in Probability Assessment
- Methods for Eliciting Probabilities
- Decisions Involving Groups of Individuals
- Resource Allocation and Negotiation Problems
- Decision Framing and Cognitive Inertia
- Scenario Planning: An Alternative Way of Dealing with Uncertainty
- The Analytic Hierarchy Process
- Alternative Decision-Support Systems
- Suggested Answers to Selected Questions
- Suppliers of Computer Software
- Index.
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