Politics and uncertainty : theory, models and applications
Author(s)
Bibliographic Information
Politics and uncertainty : theory, models and applications
Cambridge University Press, c1998
- : hbk
- : pbk
Available at 22 libraries
  Aomori
  Iwate
  Miyagi
  Akita
  Yamagata
  Fukushima
  Ibaraki
  Tochigi
  Gunma
  Saitama
  Chiba
  Tokyo
  Kanagawa
  Niigata
  Toyama
  Ishikawa
  Fukui
  Yamanashi
  Nagano
  Gifu
  Shizuoka
  Aichi
  Mie
  Shiga
  Kyoto
  Osaka
  Hyogo
  Nara
  Wakayama
  Tottori
  Shimane
  Okayama
  Hiroshima
  Yamaguchi
  Tokushima
  Kagawa
  Ehime
  Kochi
  Fukuoka
  Saga
  Nagasaki
  Kumamoto
  Oita
  Miyazaki
  Kagoshima
  Okinawa
  Korea
  China
  Thailand
  United Kingdom
  Germany
  Switzerland
  France
  Belgium
  Netherlands
  Sweden
  Norway
  United States of America
Note
Includes bibliographical references (p. 306-332) and index
Description and Table of Contents
Description
Uncertainty is an ever-present and ineradicable aspect of politics. It affects all important issues of governance and policy, in both domestic and international contexts. Rather than treating the uncertainty of politics as a mystery, this book provides an original and direct treatment of political uncertainty as a scientifically-knowable phenomenon with well-defined principles and substantive properties. Specific applications of this theory of political uncertainty are demonstrated in diverse areas of politics, examining such questions as when and how wars break out, when and how governments collapse, and when and how political cooperation emerges. The author shows how probability and mathematical modeling can play a central role in understanding such complex and fundamental issues.
Table of Contents
- Part I. Foundations: 1. Introduction
- Part II. Macropolitics: 2. Behavior of political variables
- 3. General macropolitical principles
- 4. Special macropolitical principles
- Part III. Micropolitics: 5. Occurrence of political events
- 6. General Micropolitical principles
- 7. Special micropolitical principles
- Part IV. Conclusions: 8. Synthesis.
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