Anticipating ethnic conflict

Bibliographic Information

Anticipating ethnic conflict

Ashley J. Tellis, Thomas S. Szayna, James A. Winnefeld

RAND, 1997

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"Prepared for the U.S. Army by RAND's Arroyo Center."--T.p.

"MR-853-A."

Includes bibliographical references

Description and Table of Contents

Description

Under what conditions are ethnic groups likely to take up violence against the state? When are they more likely to favor the peaceful pursuit of group aims? When are states likely to resort to violence and repression rather than negotiation? A better understanding and anticipation of such conflicts may improve the prospects for preventive action without force. Anticipating Ethnic Conflict provides a theoretical model of the social processes and dynamics that lead to ethnic and communitarian conflict and state breakdown. While it is designed as a handbook and a practical tool for intelligence analysts as they work to identify and plan for potential ethnic-conflict contingencies around the world, its discussion of the social-science underpinnings of the analytic model will make it an important read for anyone interested in analyzing the phenomenon of ethnic conflict.

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