CiNii Books - Decision analysis for management judgment

Decision Analysis for Management Judgment Second Edition In an increasingly complex world, decision analysis can play a major role in helping decision makers to gain a greater understanding of the problems they face; particularly as research has shown that the decision-making process can often go wrong. This book aims to make decision analysis accessible to managers and administrators in business and public sector organizations. Written in a user-friendly style and using practical examples, it shows how difficult decisions can be tackled in a structured way so that new insights emerge and a documented and defensible rationale for the decision is established. Extended and updated to include the latest ideas and techniques, new features of this edition include chapters on the analytic hierarchy process, decision framing, scenario planning and how unaided decision makers make decisions, while more exercises and discussion questions have been included at the end of most chapters. Decision Analysis for Management Judgment is an essentially practical book which draws together ideas from a variety of disciplines - including psychology, management science and statistics. Assuming little or no prior knowledge of these disciplines, it will help both practicing managers faced with the responsibility of making crucial decisions as well as students on management, business administration and decision analysis courses. "I found the book well organized, informative, and especially easy to read . I give the book my highest recommendation." Journal of the Operational Research Society "This is an excellent introductory text on decision analysis and the best I have seen . Goodwin and Wright have written a remarkably complete text. It is hard to find fault with this book." Interfaces "[This book] offers plenty of thought-provoking questions and inspiration for new ways of tackling decision problems. [It] makes for easy and interesting reading." Scandinavian Journal of Management "All in all, this book is well written,user friendly, and very informative. A very worthwhile book." Personnel Psychology

Table of Contents

Decisions Involving Multiple Objectives. How People Make Decisions Involving Multiple Objectives. Introduction to Probability. Decision Making Under Uncertainty. Decision Trees and Influence Diagrams. Applying Simulation to Decision Problems. Revising Judgments in the Light of New Information. Biases in Probability Assessment. Methods for Eliciting Probabilities. Decisions Involving Groups of Individuals. Resource Allocation and Negotiation Problems. Decision Framing and Cognitive Inertia. Scenario Planning: An Alternative Way of Dealing with Uncertainty. The Analytic Hierarchy Process. Alternative Decision-Support Systems. Suggested Answers to Selected Questions. Suppliers of Computer Software. Index.

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Decision analysis for management judgment

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