Irrational exuberance
著者
書誌事項
Irrational exuberance
Princeton University Press, c2000
- : cloth : alk. paper
大学図書館所蔵 全44件
  青森
  岩手
  宮城
  秋田
  山形
  福島
  茨城
  栃木
  群馬
  埼玉
  千葉
  東京
  神奈川
  新潟
  富山
  石川
  福井
  山梨
  長野
  岐阜
  静岡
  愛知
  三重
  滋賀
  京都
  大阪
  兵庫
  奈良
  和歌山
  鳥取
  島根
  岡山
  広島
  山口
  徳島
  香川
  愛媛
  高知
  福岡
  佐賀
  長崎
  熊本
  大分
  宮崎
  鹿児島
  沖縄
  韓国
  中国
  タイ
  イギリス
  ドイツ
  スイス
  フランス
  ベルギー
  オランダ
  スウェーデン
  ノルウェー
  アメリカ
注記
Includes bibliographical references (p. 269-281) and index
内容説明・目次
内容説明
In this bold and potentially urgent volume, Robert J. Shiller, a respected expert on market volatility, offers an unconventional interpretation of recent U.S. stock market highs and shows that Alan Greenspan's term "irrational exuberance" is a good description of the mood behind the market. He warns that poorer performance may be in the offing and tells us how we - as a country and individually - can respond. Shiller credits an unprecedented confluence of events with driving stocks to uncharted heights. He analyzes the structural and psychological factors that explain why the Dow Jones Industrial Average tripled between 1994 and 1999, a level of growth not reflected in any other sector of the economy. In contrast to many analysts, Shiller stresses circumstances that alter investors' perceptions of the market. These include the entry of the Internet into American homes, the misimpression that the aging of the baby-boom generation builds long-term protection into the market, and herd behavior, such as day-trading. He also examines cultural factors, including sports-style media coverage of the Dow's ups and downs and "new era" thinking about the economy.
He considers - and challenges - efforts to rationalize exuberance that are based on either efficient-markets theory, narrowly construed, or the claim that investors have only recently learned the true value of the market. In the most controversial portion of the book, Shiller cautions that a market that is overvalued by historical standards is inherently precarious. Among his prescriptions is an urgent plea to immediately end what he argues are perilous schemes to privatize social security in favor of plans to reform it. He also argues that private pension plans that encourage many people to put their entire retirement funds in the stock market should be modified. And he calls on our savings and investment institutions to take more sensible account of emerging risk-management principles. Shiller's analysis is convincingly documented, and - regardless of the market's future behavior - his book will stand as an important elaboration of why stocks soared and what our investment alternatives are. "Irrational Exuberance" is a must-read for pension-plan sponsors and endowment managers in the United States and abroad.
It will also be studied by investment advisers, policy makers, and anyone from Wall Street to Main Street who doesn't want to be caught sitting on the speculative bubble if (or when) it bursts.
目次
List of Figures and Tables ix Preface xi Acknowledgments xix One The Stock Market Level in Historical Perspective 3 Part One Structural Factors TWO Precipitating Factors: The Internet, the Baby Boom, and Other Events 17 Three Amplification Mechanisms: Naturally Occurring Ponzi Processes 44 Part Two Cultural Factors Four The News Media 71 Five New Era Economic Thinking 96 Six New Eras and Bubbles around the World 118 Part Three Psychological Factors Seven Psychological Anchors for the Market 135 Eight Herd Behavior and Epidemics 148 Part Four Attempts to Rationalize Exuberance Nine Efficient Markets, Random Walks, and Bubbles 171 Ten Investor Learning-and Unlearning 191 Part Five A Call to Action Eleven Speculative Volatility in a Free Society 203 Notes 235 References 269 Index 283
「Nielsen BookData」 より