Strategic decision making : a best practice blueprint
著者
書誌事項
Strategic decision making : a best practice blueprint
（CBI fast track series）
John Wiley & Sons, c2001
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注記
Includes bibliographical references (p. [131]-[135]) and index
"CBI, the voice of business"--T.p
内容説明・目次
内容説明
Good decision making is crucial to good management and successful strategic planning. Sadly the decision making capabilities within organisations are often poor. Using a fascinating and very readable combination of psychological theory, pencil-and-paper thought problems, and material from contemporary media, George Wright demonstrates why high-profile strategic disasters occur and how to prevent your own organisation from making similar mistakes. Case studies include Marks & Spencer, Dyson, Baring's Bank and the Millennium Dome.
目次
Series Foreword by Digby Jones ix
About the author xi
Preface xiii
Acknowledgements xv
1 Challenging Routines 1
Success formulas 3
Frames of reference 4
2 Decision Making in Management Teams 15
Groupthink 17
Alleviating groupthink 25
3 Overcoming Overconfidence 29
Overconfidence 30
Confirmation bias 32
Hindsight bias 33
Expert predictions 33
Alleviating overconfidence 39
4 How to Think with Scenarios 43
Scenario planning 44
Scenario construction: the extreme World method 45
Using scenarios in decision making 49
Scenario construction: the driving-forces method 55
The benefits of scenario planning 62
5 Dealing with Decision Dilemmas 73
Avoiding difficult decisions 74
Case study of a management team facing a decision dilemma 76
Dealing with psychological reactions to difficult decisions 80
6 Expectation and Decision Making 85
Decision trees 86
Blame culture and risk taking 93
7 How to Make Trade-offs 105
Simplifying choices can result in poor decisions 106
Making trade offs 113
8 Harnessing the Minds of Managers 121
Strategy development 122
A technique for the facilitation of strategic thinking 123
The role of the facilitator 124
Lessons from this book 126
Notes 131
Appendix A 137
Appendix B 138
Appendix C 139
Index 141
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