Disinflation in transition economies

著者

書誌事項

Disinflation in transition economies

edited by Marek Dabrowski

Central European University Press, 2003

  • : cloth

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注記

Includes bibliographical references and index

内容説明・目次

内容説明

The authors of this outstanding scholarly work analyze the dynamics of disinflation in transition economies in Central and Eastern Europe. The volume covers all the key factors of this process: changes in money supply and money demand; exchange rate policy; currency crisis; fiscal policy; legal status of central banks; monetary policy strategy; changes in relative prices and changes in nominal and real wages. The book contains 13 chapters related to various aspects of disinflation and covering different sets of transition countries depending on their relevance to the analyzed topic and data availability.

目次

List of Figures List of Tables and Appendices About the Authors Foreword (Simon Johnson) Introduction (Marek Dabrowski) 1. Disinflation Strategies and Their Effectiveness in Transition Economies (Marek Dabrowski) 1.1. The Economic Rationale for Disinflation 1.1.1. The Damaging Effects of High and Very High Inflation 1.1.2. Moderate and Low Inflation: The Danger of Inflation Inertia 1.1.3. Results of the Empirical Research 1.2. The Varying Speeds of Inflation 1.2.1. The Size of the Initial Destabilization 1.2.2. The Timing of Disinflation Programs 1.2.3. The Speed of Disinflation (until 1997) 1.2.4. Inflation Developments, 1998-1999 1.2.5. Reversal of the Disinflation Trend 1.3. Looking for an Effective Disinflation Strategy 1.3.1. Stabilization Strategies in the First Stage of Transition 1.3.2. Controversies Surrounding Exchange-Rate Targeting in Moderate- and Low-Inflation Environments 1.3.3. Exchange Rate Arrangements That stimulate Inflation Inertia 1.4. The Role of Fiscal Policy in Supporting the Disinflation Process 1.4.1. Monetary Financing of Fiscal Deficits 1.4.2. Nonmonetary Financing of Fiscal Deficits 1.4.3. Debt-Trap Episodes and Financial Crises 1.4.4. The Role of Fiscal Policy and Central-Bank Independence 1.5. Conclusions References Notes 2. Monetary Expansion and Its Influence on Inflation Performance in Transition Economies (Rafal Antczak) 2.1. Stabilization and Inflation 2.2. Simple Monetary Accounting 2.3. Inflation and the Rate of Growth of Broad Money 2.4. Final Remarks References Notes 3. Money Demand and Monetization in Transition Economies (Marek Jarocinski) 3.1. "Unfreeezing" the Monetary Overhang 3.2. Monetization in the Transition Economies Compared 3.2.1. Broad-Money Monetization and Per Capita GDP 3.2.2. Inflation and Monetization 3.3.3. The Banking Sector and Broad-Money Monetization 3.3. Factors Determining Monetization in the Transition Economies 3.3.1. Real GDP and Inflation Dynamics 3.3.2. The Shadow Economy 3.3.3. The Banking Sector's Circumstances 3.3.4. Currency-Board Arrangements 3.4. High-Monetization Transition Economies 3.5. Medium-Monetization Transition Economies 3.6. Low-Monetization Countries 3.6.1. General Characteristics 3.6.2. Additional Factors in Low-Monetization Countries 3.6.3. How Demonetized Economies Function? 3.6.4. Money-Demand Dynamics during Stabilization, Following Hyperinflation 3.7. Conclusions Data Sources References Notes 4. The Influence of Exchange-Rate Stability on Inflation (Malgorzata Antczak and Urban Gorski) 4.1. The Transmission Channels of a Currency Depreciation on Prices 4.2. Inflation and Currency-Depreciation Rates in a Simple Analytical Framework 4.2.1. Exchange-Rate Stability 4.2.2. The Partial-Adjustment Model 4.2.3. Hypothesis 4. 2.4. Data 4.2.5. Results of Estimates 4.2.6. Some Additional Comments 4.3. When is an Exchange-Rate Anchor Sustainable? References Notes 5. The Inflationary Consequences of the Devaluation Crieses in Russia and Ukraine: First Observations (Marek Dabrowski, Urban Gorski, and Marek Jarocinski) 5.1. The Crises: Similarities and Differences 5.2. The Crisis Spiral Develops 5.2.1. Dynamics of the Russian Crisis 5.2.2. Ukrainian-Follow-up 5.3. Explaining the Initial Inflation Surge 5.3.1. The Influence of the Exchange Rate-Rate Depreciation on Prices in Russia 5.3.2. Expectations and Speculative Demand during the Initial Price Spike 5.3.3. The Influence of the Exchange-Rate Depreciation on Prices in Ukraine 5.3.4. The Role of Administrative Price Controls 5.4. Channels of Money Supply and Money Velocity 5.4.1. Money Supply in Russia 5.4.2. Monetary Aggregates in Ukraine 5.5. Comparing the Inflationary Consequences of the Financial Crises 5.6. Final Remarks Appendix. Data Sources References Notes 6. Disinflation Policy, Capital Inflow, and the Current-Account Balance (Krzysztof Rybinski and Mateusz Szczurek) 6.1. The Determinants of Foreign Borrowing 6.2. Policymakers' Responses to Capital Inflows: Theoretical Models 6.2.1. The Absorption Approach 6.2.2. Responding to Capital Inflows: The Proper Policy Mix 6.2.3. Meade's Internal-External Balance Synthesis 6.2.4. Mundell's Assignment Problem 6.2.5. Intertemporal Current-Account Models 6.3. What Determines the Current Account's Improvement? 6.4. The Current Account-Inflation Trade-of: The Causality Issue 6.5. Capital Inflows, Exchange Rates, and Inflation: The Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland 6.5.1. Panel Analysis 6.5.2. PPP Model Analysis 6.6. Summary and Conclusions References Notes 7. Modeling the Real Exchange Rate in Transition: The Cases of Poland and Romania (Maryla Maliszewska) 7.1. Theoretical Considerations 7.1.1. Modeling Real Exchange Rates in Developed Economies 7.1.2. Modeling Real Exchange Rates in the Transition Economies 7.2. Empirical Research: Characteristics of the Model 7.3. The Real Exchange Rate in Romania 7.3.1. General Characteristics 7.3.2. Data Description 7.3.3. Methodology and Results 7.4. The Real Exchange Rate in Poland 7.4.1. General Characteristics 7.4.2. Data Description 7.4.3. Methodology and Results 7.5. Conclusions References Notes 8. Fiscal Policy and Disinflation in Transition Economies (Malgorzata Markiewicz) 8.1. The Interrelationship between Fiscal Deficits and Inflation 8.2. Budget Deficits in the Early Stage of Transition 8.3. Quasi-Fiscal Arrangements 8.4. The Consequences of Nonmonetary Deficit Financing 8.4.1. The Hungarian Crisis: 1994 8.4.2. The Bulgarian Crisis: 1994 and 1996-1997 8.4.3. The Russian Crisis: 1997-1998 8.4.4. The Ukrainian Crisis: 1997-1998 8.4.5. The Crises in Kyrgyzstan: 1996 and 1998 8.5. Conclusions References Notes 9. Central-Bank Independence and Its Impact on Inflation in Transition Economies (Wojciech Maliszewski) 9.1. Central-Bank Independence: Economic Theory and Empirical Evidence 9.2. Economic Theory and Transition Realities 9.3. Indices of Legal Independence 9.4. Revisions in Central-Bank Laws 9.5. Central-Bank Independence and Inflation Performance 9.6. Conclusions Appendix. Central-Bank Laws in the Transition Economies References Notes 10. Relative Price Adjustment in the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland: A Comparison of the Size and Impact of Inflation (Przemyslaw Wozniak) 10.1. Inflationary Pressures Derived from Relative Price Variability 10.1.1. Theoretical Framework 10.1.2. Relative Price Variability: Visual Inspection and the Model 10.1.3. Description of the Data 10.2. Sources of Relative Price Variability 10.2.1. Outlier Price Changes 10.2.2. Seasonality 10.2.3. Relative Prices of CPI Aggregates 10.2.4. The Evolution of Price Structures 10.3. Summary and Conclusions Appendix. Data Sources References Notes 11. The Wage-Price Spiral in Transition Economies (Mateusz Walewski) 11.1. The Wage-Price-Relationship Theory 11.1.1. The Wage-Price Spiral 11.1.2. Wage-Price Equation Theory 11.2. Empirical Research on the Wage-Price Spiral 11.3. Graphical and Statistical Analysis of Wage-Price Relations 11.3.1. The Data Source 11.3.2. The Price-Wage-Relationship during High-Inflation Periods 11.3.3. Graphical Analysis of the Data from a Moderate-Inflation Period 11.3.4. Statistical Analysis of the Relationship between Wages and Unemployment and Productivity 11.4. Econometric Analysis of the Relationship between Prices and Wages 11.4.1. Econometric Results from High-Inflation Periods 11.4.2. Econometric Results form High-Inflation Periods without the Unemployment Variable 11.4.3. Results of Analysis of a Moderate-Inflation Period with the Unemployment Variable Included 11.4.4. Results of Estimated Equations for Moderate-Inflation Periods 11.5. Summary and Conclusions Appendix References Notes 12. Monetary-Policy Targeting in the Central European Transition Economies (Lucjan T. Orlowski) 12.1. The Review of Monetary-Targeting Practices before 1998 12.2. Forward-Looking versus Backward-Looking Monetary Policies 12.3. The Advantages of Direct Inflation Targeting (DIT) 12.4. A Model of Direct Inflation Targeting for Central Europe 12.5. Core-Inflation Targeting in the Czech Republic 12.6. A Synthesis References Notes 13. Prospects for a Future Disinflation Policy in Poland (Witold M. Orlowski) 13.1. Future Inflation: The Structural Factors 13.2. The Exchange Rate, Inflationary Expectations, and the Current-Account Deficit 13.3. The Experiences of EU Countries 13.4. Poland's Macroeconomic Policy and Inflation References Notes Index

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