Wireless foresight : scenarios of the mobile world in 2015

著者

    • Karlson, Bo

書誌事項

Wireless foresight : scenarios of the mobile world in 2015

Bo Karlson ... [et al.]

Wiley, c2003

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注記

Includes bibliographical references and index

内容説明・目次

内容説明

Wireless Foresight deals with the development of the wireless communications industry and technology during the coming ten to fifteen years. Telecommunications is a global business of enormous proportions and is one of the largest industries in the world. Written in a highly accessible and simple to read manner, this book is based around four scenarios of the wireless world in 2015. The focus is on the industry (i.e. infrastructure and terminal vendors, operators, and service developers and providers) as well as on new players. Discusses the long-term developments described in the four scenarios and also short term issues, for example the challenges facing industry. Uncovers important areas for technological research and discusses the critical challenges facing industry, for example; the high cost for infrastructure, the slow spectrum release, the stampeding system complexity, radiation, battery capacity, and the threat of a disruptive market change facing the telecommunications industry. Offers a global approach whereby developments from around the world are described. Employs the method of building full-scale scenarios as opposed to just identifying trends and making predictions. Wireless Foresight is an invaluable and provocative read for top and middle management, strategists, business developers, technology managers, and entrepreneurs in the telecom, datacom and infocom industries alike. It is also of great interest to financial analysts and academics.

目次

Preface xiii 1 Introduction 1 The Wireless Industry at a Crossroads 1 Be Prepared for 2015 4 Scenarios of the Wireless World in 2015 4 Challenges for the Future 6 Creating Scenarios 6 Guide to the Book 7 Part I Scenarios 9 2 Wireless Explosion-Creative Destruction 11 A Sunny Berlin Day in 2015 14 The Wireless Scene in 2015 16 Rapidly Growing Industry 16 Industry Fragmentation-Market Leaders Losing Hegemony 17 Debt-Burdened Operators Losing Market Dominance 18 Telco Equipment Vendors Lose to Datacom Attackers 19 Terminal Vendors Attacked from NICs and Datacom Industry Vendors 20 Active Users Driving Development and Undermining Copyright 21 A Mobile Lifestyle with Increasing Travel 22 An Explosion of Services and Applications 22 Spectrum-Abundant Release for Unlicensed Bands 24 No Real Problems with Integrity, Privacy, and Security 24 Fast Development in China and Other NICs 25 Batteries and Complexity Management No Showstoppers 25 Wireless Technology in 2015 26 A World with Many Different Wireless Systems 26 An Abundance of Services with Various QoS 28 Standardization Has Increased 28 3 Slow Motion 29 Ordinary Life in Stockholm and Business Life in Shanghai 32 A Day in the Life of an Ordinary Swede 32 A Business Day of a Mobile Professional in 2015 33 The Wireless Scene in 2015 35 Economic Recession and 3G Fiasco 35 Health Problems from Radiation 36 Security a Problem Still Waiting to Be Solved 37 The Mobile Lifestyle Loses Ground 38 No Service Explosion 39 Wireless Telecommunication Is a Mature Industry 40 The Big NICs Catching up after a Slow Start 42 Spectrum Shortage Not a Big Problem 43 Power Consumption and Complexity Management as Technical Limitations 44 Wireless Technology in 2015 45 Still Mostly Second-Generation Wireless Networks 45 Simple and Low-Radiating Terminals 46 Few and Basic Services 47 4 Rediscovering Harmony 49 A Weekday Morning in a Small Scandinavian Village 52 The Wireless Scene in 2015 54 A Sustainable Society in Balance with Itself 54 The Backlash for Marketing and Commercial Media 56 Market Segments Driving the Development 57 Less but More Travel 59 A Few Clouds in the Sky 60 The Industry Dilemma: Refocus or Die! 60 Peer-to-Peer Applications and Services a Hit 62 Content IPR Still Unresolved 64 Wireless Technology in 2015 64 Many Local and Few Global Wireless Systems 64 Simple Services 65 Standards 65 5 Big Moguls and Snoopy Governments 67 Early April Morning, Green Haven Gated Community, New York, US 70 The Wireless Scene in 2015 73 Moguls and Governments 73 Security Problems of the 2000s Solved 74 Moguls in Control 76 Slow Development in the NICs 77 Incumbent Telecom Players Keep Control of the Market 77 3G According to Plan 80 Applications and Services Focus on Convenience for the User 80 No Free Airwaves 81 Somewhat of a Complex World 81 Wireless Technology in 2015 82 Few Different Systems 82 Global Networks 82 Wireless and Wired Terminals 83 Quality of Service 83 Few Services but Sophisticated and Popular Services 83 Part II Drivers of Development and Technological Implications 85 6 Trends and Fundamental Drivers 87 Fourteen Trends Shaping the Scenarios 88 Scenario Abbreviations 88 Trend 1: Development Will Be More User Driven 88 Trend 2: User Mobility Will Increase 89 Trend 3: The Service and Application Market Will Grow 90 Trend 4: User Security, Integrity, and Privacy Will Become More Important 91 Trend 5: Real or Perceived Health Problems Due to Radiation Will Become More Important 92 Trend 6: Environmental Issues Will Become More Important 93 Trend 7: Spectrum Will Become an Increasingly Scarce Resource 94 Trend 8: The Wireless Industry Will Grow 95 Trend 9: The Big NICs Will Continue Their Positive Development 96 Trend 10: Market Concentration in the Wireless Industry Will Change 96 Trend 11: The Fight for Market Dominance in the Wireless Industry Will Intensify 97 Trend 12: Short Terminal Usage Time and Complexity Management Will Become Increasingly Important Problems 98 Trend 13: 3G Will Be Implemented 99 Trend 14: Protecting IPR on Content Will Become Increasingly Difficult 100 Fundamental Drivers 101 Technology Drivers 101 Socioeconomic and Political Drivers 104 Business and Industry Drivers 105 Users, Values, and Attitude Drivers 107 Theories Supporting Fundamental Drivers 108 Exponential Growth 108 Microprocessor and Other Growth Paths 109 Exponentially Falling Prices and the Experience Curve 110 Network Effects I (Metcalfe's Law) 110 Network Effects II (Reed's Law) 110 The S-curve and the Product Life Cycle 111 Technology and Market Forces Driving Industry Life Cycles 111 Disruptive Innovations 112 Architectural Shifts in IT and Other Industries 113 Empirical Support for Postmaterialistic Value Shift 114 7 Technological Conclusions from Scenarios 117 System Technology in 2015 118 The Wireless Infrastructure Will Be Heterogeneous 118 Efficient and Very High Rate Air Interfaces Will Exist 118 Traffic Will Be IP Based and Networks Will Be Transparent 119 Much of the Access Infrastructure Will Be Ad Hoc Deployed 119 Cost per Transmitted Bit Will Be Very Small 119 No Harmful Radiation from Base Stations 120 Decreased Power Consumption in the Wireless Systems 120 Mobile Terminals in 2015 120 Terminals Will Have a Wide Range of Shapes and Capabilities 120 Wireless Terminals Will Be Cheap, Very Small, and Modularized 121 Usage Time without Charging Batteries Will Be Very Long 121 User Interfaces Will Be Highly Developed and Advanced 121 M2M Will Be Everywhere 122 Wireless Devices Will Be Harmless to People and the Environment 122 Mobile Services in 2015 122 Wireless Services Will Become a Commodity 123 Services Will Be Independent of Infrastructure and Terminals 123 Telepresence and Emotional Communication Will Be Available 123 Content Will Be Personalized According to User Demand and Location 124 Global Roaming and Seamless Services Will Be Possible 124 Broadband Services Will Be Available for All Transportation Systems 124 The End User Will Be Always Best Connected 124 Powerful Computers Will Be Everywhere 125 Very High Levels of Security Will Be Provided 125 Part III Challenges for the Future 127 8 Challenges for Technical Research 129 Low-Cost Infrastructure and Services 129 Seamless Mobility 132 New and Advanced Services 134 Usability and Human-Machine Interface 135 Health and Environment 136 A Need for Cross-Disciplinary Research 137 9 Challenges for the Wireless Industry 139 Introduction 139 The Challenges 139 Threat from Disruptive Market Change 139 Speed up the Process of Spectrum Release 140 3G and the Telco Debt Threat 141 Complexity Management 141 Radiation a Problem, Real or Perceived 142 Better Batteries in Wireless Devices 142 Usability and the User in Focus 142 Cheaper Infrastructure and Viable Business Models 143 A Phone for Everyone 143 All Industries Mature 143 10 Challenges for Key Regions 145 US 146 An Immature Market for Mobile Services Waiting to Catch Up 146 Fragmented Operator Industry Being Consolidated 147 Multiple Cellular Network Standards 148 WLAN: A Market Growing Rapidly 148 Rather Weak Telco Vendor Industry 149 Poor Coverage 150 Lack of Spectrum Leading to Limited Capacity 150 The Threat of Terrorism and Crime 151 Europe 152 The GSM World Leader 152 Problems with Seamless Mobile Access 153 Telecom Debt Crisis 153 Strong in Telecom, Weak in Datacom 154 Health and the Environment Taken Seriously 154 Stagnation and Overregulated Economies 154 China 155 An Opaque and Overregulated Economy 156 Political Instability 156 Risks of Complacency 156 Challenges for the Chinese Wireless Industry 157 Risks and Opportunities with Chinese 3G Standard Wars 158 Japan and South Korea 158 Leading the Way into the Wireless Future 159 Oligopoly in the Operator Industry 160 Multiple Standards for 2.5G and 3G 160 A Slow Start for 3G 161 A Saturated Voice Market 161 3G Terminals Expensive to Subsidize 162 4G Already 162 No Major Infrastructure Vendors from Japan and Korea 162 The Japanese Recession 163 Political Uncertainty on the Korean Peninsula 163 Part IV Moving into the Future with Scenarios 165 11 Scenario Thinking and Scenario Making 167 Logics of Scenario Creation 167 Our Approach: Trends 168 Driving Forces: What Do We Care About? 169 Fundamental Drivers: What Do We Know? 169 Critical Uncertainties: What Do We Not Know? 170 Making Our Scenarios 170 Creating the Scenarios and Key Research Issues 171 Weak Signals and Provocative Questions 172 Information and Feedback 173 Commissioned Studies 174 Other Studies about the Future 174 The PCC Research Program 174 The WWRF Book of Visions 175 Swedish Technology Foresight 176 Beyond Mobile 177 Other Scenarios 177 12 Summary and Concluding Remarks 179 The Book in Brief 179 Wireless Explosion-Creative Destruction 180 Slow Motion 182 Rediscovering Harmony 184 Big Moguls and Snoopy Governments 187 Trends and Fundamental Drivers 189 Technological Conclusions from the Scenarios 191 Challenges for Research, Industry, and Key Regions 192 Moving into the Future 199 Dear Reader in 2015 201 Appendixes 203 Appendix A User Segments 205 Moklofs 205 Yupplots 206 Elders 207 Mobile Professionals 207 Industrial Users 208 Appendix B Wireless Foresight at Wireless@KTH 209 The Wireless Foresight Project 209 Wireless@KTH and the Vision-Driven Research Approach 210 Glossary 211 References 215 Author Biographies 219 Index 221

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