CiNii 図書 - Veterinary epidemiology

This successful book, now in its third edition, continues to provide a comprehensive introduction to the role of epidemiology in veterinary medicine. Since the publication of the second edition there has been considerable expansion in the application of veterinary epidemiology: more quantitative methods are available, challenges such as the epidemic of foot-and-mouth disease in Europe in 2001 have required epidemiological investigation, and epidemiological analyses have taken on further importance with the emergence of evidence-based veterinary medicine. In this edition: completely revised and expanded chapters; increased attention given to the principles and concepts of epidemiology, surveillance, and diagnostic-test validation and performance; many examples are drawn from both large and small animal medicine, and from the developing as well as the developed world. "Veterinary Epidemiology" is an invaluable reference source for veterinary general practitioners, government veterinarians, agricultural economists and members of other disciplines interested in animal disease. It will also be essential reading for undergraduate and intermediate-level postgraduate students of epidemiology.

From the preface to the first edition
From the preface to the second edition
Preface to the third edition
The development of veterinary medicine
The scope of epidemiology
Causality
Describing disease occurrence
Determinants of disease
The transmission and maintenance of infection
The ecology of disease
Patterns of disease
The nature of data
Surveillance
Data collection and management
Presenting numerical data
Surveys
Demonstrating association
Observational studies
Clinical trials
Diagnostic testing
Comparative epidemiology
Modelling
The economics of disease
Health schemes
The control and eradication of disease
General reading
Appendices Appendix I: Glossary of terms Appendix II: Basic mathematical notation and terms Appendix III: Some computer software Appendix IV: Veterinary epidemiology on the Internet Appendix V: Student's t-distribution Appendix VI: Multipliers used in the construction of confidence intervals based on the Normal distribution, for selected levels of confidence Appendix VII: Values of exact 95% confidence limits for proportions Appendix VIII: Values from the Poisson distribution for calculating 90%, 95% and 99% confidence intervals for observed numbers from 0 to 100 Appendix IX: The Chi-squared distribution Appendix X: Technique for selecting a simple random sample Appendix XI: Sample sizes Appendix XII: The probability of detecting a small number of cases in a population Appendix XIII: The probability of failure to detect cases in a population Appendix XIV: Sample sizes required for detecting disease with probability, pmin, and threshold number of positives (in brackets) (probability of incorrectly concluding that a healthy population is diseased [in square brackets]) Appendix XV: Probabilities associated with the upper tail of the Normal distribution Appendix XVI: Lower- and upper-tail probabilities for WX, the Wilcoxon-Mann- Whitney rank-sum statistic Appendix XVII: Critical values of T+ for the Wilcoxon signed ranks test Appendix XVIII: Values of K for calculating 95% confidence intervals for the difference between population medians fore two independent samples Appendix XIX: Values of K* for calculating 95% confidence intervals for the difference between population medians fore two related samples Appendix XX: Common logarithms (log10) of factorials of the integers 1-999 Appendix XXI: The correlation coefficient Appendix XXII: Some veterinary observational studies Appendix XXIII: The variance-ratio (F) distribution References Index

巻冊次: : pbk ISBN 9781405156271

内容説明

This successful book, now in its third edition, continues to provide a comprehensive introduction to the role of epidemiology in veterinary medicine. Since the publication of the second edition there has been considerable expansion in the application of veterinary epidemiology: more quantitative methods are available, challenges such as the epidemic of foot-and-mouth disease in Europe in 2001 have required epidemiological investigation, and epidemiological analyses have taken on further importance with the emergence of evidence-based veterinary medicine. In this edition: Completely revised and expanded chapters; Increased attention given to the principles and concepts of epidemiology, surveillance, and diagnostic-test validation and performance; Many examples are drawn from both large and small animal medicine, and from the developing as well as the developed world This paperback edition includes a new section on risk analysis. Veterinary Epidemiology is an invaluable reference source for veterinary general practitioners, government veterinarians, agricultural economists and members of other disciplines interested in animal disease. It will also be essential reading for undergraduate and intermediate-level postgraduate students of epidemiology.

From the preface to the first edition xii From the preface to the second edition xiii Preface to the third edition xiv 1 The development of veterinary medicine 1 Historical perspective 1 Domestication of animals and early methods of healing 1 Changing concepts of the cause of disease 2 Impetus for change 4 Quantification in medicine 10 Contemporary veterinary medicine 11 Current perspectives 11 The fifth period 16 Recent trends 16 2 The scope of epidemiology 22 Definition of epidemiology 22 The uses of epidemiology 23 Types of epidemiological investigation 25 Epidemiological subdisciplines 26 Components of epidemiology 28 Qualitative investigations 28 Quantitative investigations 28 Epidemiology s locale 32 The interplay between epidemiology and other sciences 32 The relationship between epidemiology and other diagnostic disciplines 32 Epidemiology within the veterinary profession 33 3 Causality 34 Philosophical background 34 Causal inference 35 Methods of acceptance of hypotheses 36 Koch s postulates 37 Evans rules 37 Variables 38 Types of association 38 Confounding 40 Causal models 40 Formulating a causal hypothesis 42 Methods of deriving a hypothesis 43 Principles for establishing cause: Hill s criteria 44 4 Describing disease occurrence 46 Some basic terms 46 Basic concepts of disease quantification 49 The structure of animal populations 50 Contiguous populations 50 Separated populations 52 Measures of disease occurrence 53 Prevalence 53 Incidence 53 The relationship between prevalence and incidence rate 56 Application of prevalence and incidence values 57 Mortality 57 Survival 58 Example of calculation of prevalence, incidence, mortality, case fatality and survival 60 Ratios, proportions and rates 61 Displaying morbidity and mortality values and demographic data 65 Mapping 65 Geographic base maps 67 Geographical information systems 69 5 Determinants of disease 75 Classification of determinants 75 Host determinants 78 Genotype 78 Age 79 Sex 79 Species and breed 80 Other host determinants 81 Agent determinants 82 Virulence and pathogenicity 82 Gradient of infection 85 Outcome of infection 86 Microbial colonization of hosts 87 Environmental determinants 88 Location 88 Climate 88 Husbandry 90 Stress 91 Interaction 92 Biological interaction 93 Statistical interaction 94 The cause of cancer 95 6 The transmission and maintenance of infection 98 Horizontal transmission 98 Types of host and vector 98 Factors associated with the spread of infection 100 Routes of infection 103 Methods of transmission 105 Long-distance transmission of infection 106 Vertical transmission 110 Types and methods of vertical transmission 110 Immunological status and vertical transmission 110 Transovarial and trans-stadial transmission in arthropods 110 Maintenance of infection 111 Hazards to infectious agents 111 Maintenance strategies 112 7 The ecology of disease 116 Basic ecological concepts 116 The distribution of populations 116 Regulation of population size 120 The niche 123 Some examples of niches relating to disease 124 The relationships between different types of animals and plants 126 Ecosystems 130 Biotope 130 Types of ecosystem 130 Landscape epidemiology 132 Nidality 132 Objectives of landscape epidemiology 133 8 Patterns of disease 137 Epidemic curves 137 The Reed Frost model 140 Kendall s waves 142 Trends in the temporal distribution of disease 144 Short-term trends 144 Cyclical trends 144 Long-term (secular) trends 145 True and false changes in morbidity and mortality 146 Detecting temporal trends: time series analysis 146 Trends in the spatial and temporal distribution of disease 150 Spatial trends in disease occurrence 150 Space time clustering 151 9 The nature of data 152 Classification of data 152 Scales (levels) of measurement 153 Composite measurement scales 155 Data elements 156 Nomenclature and classification of disease 156 Diagnostic criteria 157 Sensitivity and specificity 158 Accuracy, refinement, precision, reliability and validity 159 Bias 160 Representation of data: coding 161 Code structure 162 Numeric codes 162 Alpha codes 163 Alphanumeric codes 164 Symbols 165 Choosing a code 165 Error detection 166 10 Surveillance 168 Some basic definitions and principles 168 Definition of surveillance 168 Goals of surveillance 169 Types of surveillance 169 Some general considerations 171 Sources of data 173 Mechanisms of surveillance 179 Surveillance networks 179 Surveillance in developing countries: participatory epidemiology 179 Techniques of data collection 184 Strengths and weaknesses of participatory epidemiology 186 Some examples of participatory epidemiology 186 11 Data collection and management 188 Data collection 188 Questionnaires 188 Quality control of data 195 Data storage 196 Database models 196 Non-computerized recording techniques 197 Computerized recording techniques 198 Data management 201 Changing approaches to computing 201 The Internet 203 Veterinary recording schemes 204 Scales of recording 204 Veterinary information systems 205 Some examples of veterinary databases and information systems 207 12 Presenting numerical data 214 Some basic definitions 214 Some descriptive statistics 215 Measures of position 216 Measures of spread 216 Statistical distributions 217 The Normal distribution 217 The binomial distribution 218 The Poisson distribution 218 Other distributions 218 Transformations 219 Normal approximations to the binomial and Poisson distributions 219 Estimation of confidence intervals 220 The mean 220 The median 221 A proportion 221 The Poisson distribution 221 Some epidemiological parameters 222 Other parameters 223 Bootstrap estimates 223 Displaying numerical data 224 Monitoring performance: control charts 224 13 Surveys 228 Sampling: some basic concepts 228 Types of sampling 229 Non-probability sampling methods 230 Probability sampling methods 230 What sample size should be selected? 232 Estimation of disease prevalence 232 Detecting the presence of disease 238 The cost of surveys 242 Calculation of confidence intervals 242 14 Demonstrating association 247 Some basic principles 247 The principle of a significance test 247 The null hypothesis 248 Errors of inference 248 One- and two-tailed tests 248 Independent and related samples 249 Parametric and non-parametric techniques 249 Hypothesis testing versus estimation 249 Sample size determination 250 Statistical versus clinical (biological) significance 250 Interval and ratio data: comparing means 252 Hypothesis testing 252 Calculation of confidence intervals 252 What sample size should be selected? 253 Ordinal data: comparing medians 254 Hypothesis testing 254 Calculation of confidence intervals 257 What sample size should be selected? 258 Nominal data: comparing proportions 258 Hypothesis testing 258 Calculation of confidence intervals 261 What sample size should be selected? 261 E2 test for trend 262 Correlation 263 Multivariate analysis 264 Statistical packages 265 15 Observational studies 266 Types of observational study 266 Cohort, case-control and cross-sectional studies 266 Ecological studies 269 Measures of association 269 Relative risk 269 Odds ratio 270 Attributable risk 272 Attributable proportion 273 Interaction 274 The additive model 275 Bias 276 Controlling bias 278 What sample size should be selected? 281 Calculating the power of a study 282 Calculating upper confidence limits 283 Multivariate techniques 284 The logistic model 284 16 Clinical trials 289 Definition of a clinical trial 289 Design, conduct and analysis 291 The trial protocol 291 The primary hypothesis 291 The experimental unit 293 The experimental population 294 Admission and exclusion criteria 294 Blinding 294 Randomization 295 Trial designs 296 What sample size should be selected? 297 Losses to follow-up 298 Compliance 298 Terminating a trial 299 Interpretation of results 299 Meta-analysis 300 Goals of meta-analysis 300 Components of meta-analysis 301 Sources of data 301 Data analysis 302 17 Diagnostic testing 305 Serological epidemiology 305 Assaying antibodies 306 Methods of expressing amounts of antibody 306 Quantal assay 307 Serological estimations and comparisons in populations 308 Antibody prevalence 308 Rate of seroconversion 309 Comparison of antibody levels 309 Interpreting serological tests 311 Refinement 311 Accuracy 312 Evaluation and interpretation of diagnostic tests 313 Sensitivity and specificity 313 Predictive value 316 Likelihood ratios 318 ROC curves 321 Aggregate-level testing 323 Multiple testing 323 Diagnostic tests in import risk assessment 325 Guidelines for validating diagnostic tests 327 Agreement between tests 327 Practical application of diagnostic tests 329 18 Comparative epidemiology 331 Types of biological model 331 Cancer 332 Monitoring environmental carcinogens 332 Identifying causes 333 Comparing ages 334 Some other diseases 336 Diseases with a major genetic component 336 Some non-infectious diseases 337 Diseases associated with environmental pollution 337 Reasoning in comparative studies 338 19 Modelling 340 Types of model 341 Modelling approaches 341 Deterministic differential calculus modelling 341 Stochastic differential calculus modelling 344 Empirical simulation modelling 345 Process simulation modelling 346 Monte Carlo simulation modelling 347 Matrix population modelling 349 Network population modelling 351 Systems modelling 352 The rational basis of modelling for active disease control 352 Available knowledge, and the functions of models 352 From theory to fact 353 Model-building 354 20 The economics of animal disease 357 Popular misconceptions 357 Economic concepts and principles 358 Disease as an economic process 359 Assessing the economic costs of disease 361 Optimum control strategies 361 Cost benefit analysis of disease control 363 Partial farm budgets 363 Social cost benefit analysis 364 21 Health schemes 368 Private health and productivity schemes 368 Structure of private health and productivity schemes 368 Dairy health and productivity schemes 370 Pig health and productivity schemes 372 Sheep health and productivity schemes 373 Beef health and productivity schemes 375 National schemes 378 Accredited/attested herds 378 Health schemes 378 Companion-animal schemes 379 22 The control and eradication of disease 384 Definition of control and eradication 384 Strategies of control and eradication 385 Important factors in control and eradication programmes 393 Outbreak investigation 398 Cause known: foot-and-mouth disease 398 Cause unknown: chronic copper poisoning 400 Veterinary medicine in the 21st century 401 Livestock medicine 401 Companion-animal medicine 402 General reading 404 Appendices 406 References 503 Index 593

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