Commodity prices, aid and debt : implications for LDCs, small vulnerable states and HIPCs
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Bibliographic Information
Commodity prices, aid and debt : implications for LDCs, small vulnerable states and HIPCs
（Commonwealth economic papers, 72）
Commonwealth Secretariat, 2004
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Description and Table of Contents
Description
This study reveals the extent of persistent downward trends in commodity prices on least developed countries (LDCs), small vulnerable states (SVSs) and heavily indebted countries (HIPCs) and proposes a Joint Diversification Scheme exclusively for export diversification schemes in the commodity-dependent poor countries. The report also proposes and outlines the establishment of a Joint Diversification Fund, in addition to regular aid flows as a long-term solution.
Table of Contents
Executive Summary 1. Introduction 1.1 Background 1.2 Objectives of the Study 1.3 Structure of the Study 2. Secular Decline in Relative Commodity Prices: A Brief Review of the Literature 2.1 The Genesis of the Debate 2.2 Empirical Findings to the mid-1980s 2.3 The Grilli-Yang Study and Subsequent Empirical Investigations 2.4 Structural Models 2.5 Concluding Observations 3. Long-run Trend in the Relative Price: Empirical Estimation for Individual Commodities 3.1 Methodology 3.2 Estimation Results 3.2.1 Trend Growth Rates of Relative Prices for Commodities in the Grilli-Yang Data Set 3.2.2 Estimation for Commodities in the UNCTAD Database 3.3 Conclusion 4. Estimating Foreign Exchange Loss Due to Declining Commodity Prices 4.1 Foreign Exchange Loss Based on the Trend Decline Rate 4.2 Foreign Exchange Loss Based on Actual Prices 4.2.1 Foreign Exchange Losses from Primary Commodity Exports 4.2.2 Foreign Exchange Losses by Commodities 4.3 Increased Supply and Depressed Prices 4.4 Conclusion 5. Instruments for Addressing Commodity Price Behaviour 5.1 International Commodity Agreements 5.2 External Compensatory Finance 5.2.1 Compensatory (and Contingency) Financing Facility 5.2.2 EC-ACP Programmes: STABEX, SYSMIN and COMPEX 5.3 Preferential Trade Agreements 5.4 Market-based Instruments for Commodity Risk Management and Insurance Schemes 5.5 Conclusion 6. Aid Flows and Commodity Prices 6.1 Aid Flows and Declining Commodity Prices 6.2 A Proposal for the Establishment of an Aid-financed Diversification Fund 6.2.1 Principles of Scheme Design 6.2.2 Hypothetical Costs to Developed Countries of the Diversification Fund 6.3 Conclusion 7. Commodity Prices and the Debt Relief Initiative 7.1 Commodity Prices and Debt 7.2 Debt Relief Initiatives 7.3 Commodity Prices and the HIPC Initiative 7.4 Incorporating a Real Price Adjustment Mechanism in the HIPC Initiative to Address the Problem of Weakness in Commodity Prices 7.4.1 Hypothetical Cost of a Real Commodity Price Adjustment Mechanism under the HIPC Initiative 7.5 Conclusion 8. Conclusion Appendices References Tables Figures
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