A science of decision making : the legacy of Ward Edwards

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書誌事項

A science of decision making : the legacy of Ward Edwards

edited by Jie W. Weiss and David J. Weiss

Oxford University Press, 2009

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注記

Includes bibliographical references and index

内容説明・目次

内容説明

Ward Edwards is well known as the father of behavioral decision making. In his 1954 Psychological Bulletin paper on decision making, he brought psychological ideas into what had been the province of economists. His influence in this realm is so pervasive that the Nobel committee was able to trace a direct path from Edwards's work to Daniel Kahneman's 2002 Prize for prospect theory. In a 1963 Psychological Review paper, Edwards brought Bayesian statistics to the attention of psychologists, who have continued to proliferate Bayesian ideas, underscoring the importance of the perspective. In a 1962 IEEE paper, Edwards foresaw how the world of intelligence gathering and analysis could by transformed by systems in which humans provided (subjective) probabilities and machines provided computational power. He also showed, in a 1986 book written with Detlof von Winterfeldt, how multiattribute utility analysis could help real-world decision makers generate satisfactory solutions to complex problems. In this book, 29 of Ward Edwards's most important published papers are reprinted, a selection that spans six decades, allowing the reader to see how this strikingly creative thinker generated many of the ideas that are now core beliefs among current researchers. It is perhaps less well known that Edwards continued to make substantial contributions during the years after his retirement. Illness reduced his public appearances, but he continued his incisive thinking behind the scenes. At the time of his passing, he was involved in several projects, and seven new papers from these projects were completed for this book by his last set of collaborators. Edwards's papers are a treat to read. His prose is the model of elegant simplicity, yet full of style and wit. With each paper, the editors have included a short introduction that presents Edwards's reflections on the content or impact of the older papers, or describes the creation of the new ones. Obituaries written by former students and colleagues flesh out the human side of this remarkable scholar.

目次

  • Introduction by the Editors Contributors to papers written especially for this Volume Complete listing of publications written or co-written by Edwards
  • I Papers on Behavioral Decision Theory
  • 1. Edwards, W. (1954). The theory of decision making. Psychological Bulletin, 51, 380-417
  • 2. Edwards, W. (1961). Behavioral decision theory. Annual Review of Psychology, 12, 473-498
  • 3. Edwards, W. (1961). Probability learning in 1000 trials. Journal of Experimental Psychology, 62, 385-94
  • 4. Edwards, W. (1962). Dynamic decision theory and probabilistic information processing. Human Factors, 4, 59-73
  • 5. Edwards, W. (1962). Subjective probabilities inferred from decisions. Psychological Review, 69, 109-135
  • 6. Phillips, L.D., & Edwards, W. (1966). Conservatism in a simple probability inference task. Journal of Experimental Psychology, 72, 346-354
  • 7. Miller, L.W., Kaplan, R.J., & Edwards, W. (1969). JUDGE: A laboratory evaluation. Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 4, 97-111
  • 8. Edwards, W. (1971). Bayesian and regression models of human information processing: A myopic perspective. Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 6, 639-648
  • 9. Fryback, D.G. & Edwards, W. (1973). Choices among bets by Las Vegas gamblers: Absolute and contextual effects. Journal of Experimental Psychology, 98, 271-278
  • 10. Edwards, W. (1998). Hailfinder: Tools for and experiences with Bayesian normative modeling. American Psychologist, 53, 416-428
  • II Papers on Statistics and Methodology
  • 11. Edwards, W. (1961). Costs and payoffs are instructions. Psychological Review, 68, 275-284
  • 12. Edwards, W., Lindman, H., & Savage, L.J. (1963). Bayesian statistical inference for psychological research. Psychological Review, 70, 193-242
  • 13. Edwards, W. (1965). Tactical note on the relation between scientific and statistical hypotheses. Psychological Bulletin, 63, 400-402
  • 14. Slovic, P., Lichtensen, S. & Edwards, W. (1965). Boredom-induced changes in preferences among bets. American Journal of Psychology, 78, 208-217.
  • 15. Edwards, W. (1983). Human cognitive capabilities, representativeness, and ground rules for research. In P.C. Humphreys, O. Svenson, & A. Vari (Eds.), Analyzing and aiding decision processes (pp. 507-513). Amsterdam: North-Holland
  • 16. von Winterfeldt, D., & Edwards, W. (1982). Costs and payoffs in perceptual research. Psychological Bulletin, 91, 609-622.
  • 17. Edwards, W., Schum D., & Winkler, R.L. (1990). Murder and (of?) the likelihood principle: A trialogue. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 3, 75-87
  • 18. Weiss, D.J., & Edwards, W. (2005). A mean for all seasons. Behavior Research Methods, 37, 677-683
  • 19. Weiss, J.W., Edwards, W., & Weiss, D.J. (prepared for this volume). The clinical significance decision
  • 20. Weiss, D.J., Edwards, W., & Shanteau, J. (prepared for this volume). The measurement of behavior: Indices and standards
  • III Papers on Diagnosis
  • 21. Gustafson, D. H., Edwards, W., Phillips, L. D., & Slack, W. V. (1969). Subjective probabilities in medical diagnosis. IEEE Transactions on Man-Machine Systems, MMS-10, 3, 61-65
  • 22. Edwards, W. (1972). N = 1. Diagnosis in unique cases. In J. A. Jacquez (Ed.) Computer diagnosis and diagnostic methods (pp. 139-151). Springfield, Il: Charles C. Thomas
  • 23. Edwards, W. (1972). N = 1. Diagnosis in unique cases. In J. A. Jacquez (Ed.) Computer diagnosis and diagnostic methods (pp. 139-151). Springfield, Il: Charles C. Thomas
  • 24. Thornbury, J. R., Fryback, D. G., & Edwards, W. (1975). Likelihood ratios as a measure of the diagnostic usefulness of excretory urogram information. Radiology, 114, 561-565
  • 25. Shanteau, J., Edwards, W., & Weiss, D. J. (prepared for this volume). Diagnosis and treatment
  • IV Papers on Multiattribute Utility
  • 26. Gardiner, P.C., & Edwards, W. (1975). Public values: Multi-attribute utility measurement for social decision making. In M. F. Kaplan & S. Schwartz (Eds.), Human judgment and decision processes (pp. 1-37). New York: Academic Press
  • 27. Edwards, W. (1977). How to use multiattribute utility measurement for social decision making. IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, & Cybernetics, 7, 326-340
  • 28. Edwards, W. (1979). Multiattribute utility measurement: Evaluating desegregation plans in a highly political context. In R. Perloff (Ed.), Evaluator interventions: Pros and cons (pp. 13-54). Beverly Hills, CA: Sage Edwards, W. (1980). Reflections on and criticisms of ahighly political multiattribute utility analysis. In L. Cobb & R. M. Thrall (Eds.), Mathematical frontiers of behavioral and policy sciences (pp.157-186). Boulder, CO: Westview Press
  • 29. Stillwell, W.G., Barron, F. H., & Edwards, W. (1983). Evaluating credit applications: A validation of multiattribute utility weight elicitation techniques. Organizational Behavior & Human Decision Processes, 32, 87-108
  • 30. Edwards, W. & Barron, F. H. (1994). SMARTS and SMARTER: Improved simple methods for multiattribute utility measurement. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 60, 306-325
  • 31. Edwards, W., & Fasolo, B. (2001). Decision technology. Annual Review of Psychology, 52, 581-606
  • 32. Weiss, J. W., Edwards, W., & Mouttapa, M. (prepared for this volume). The puzzle of adolescent substance initiation
  • 33. Weiss, J. W., Weiss, D. J., & Edwards, W. (prepared for this volume). Big decisions, little decisions: The hierarchy of everyday life
  • 34. . Bauer, J., Spackman, S., & Edwards, W. (prepared for this volume). The clinical decision tree of oral health in geriatrics
  • 35. . Weiss, D. J., Edwards, W., & Weiss, J. W. (prepared for this volume). Why is a bird in the hand worth two in the bush?
  • V Obituaries
  • 36. Dennis G. Fryback, Society for Medical Decision Making Newsletter, Summer 2005
  • 37. Lawrence D. Phillips, European Association for Decision Making Bulletin, Spring/Summer 2005
  • 38. David J. Weiss & James Shanteau, Society for Judgment/Decision Making Newsletter, March 2005

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