Geotechnical slope analysis
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Geotechnical slope analysis
CRC/Taylor & Francis Group, c2010
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Includes bibliographical references and index
内容説明・目次
内容説明
Freshly updated and extended version of Slope Analysis (Chowdhury, Elsevier, 1978). This reference book gives a complete overview of the developments in slope engineering in the last 30 years. Its multidisciplinary, critical approach and the chapters devoted to seismic effects and probabilistic approaches and reliability analyses, reflect the distinctive style of the original. Subjects discussed are: the understanding of slope performance, mechanisms of instability, requirements for modeling and analysis, and new techniques for observation and modeling. Special attention is paid to the relation with the increasing frequency and consequences of natural and manmade hazards. Strategies and methods for assessing landslide susceptibility, hazard and risk are also explored. Moreover, the relevance of geotechnical analysis of slopes in the context of climate change scenarios is discussed. All theory is supported by numerous examples. "...A wonderful book on Slope Stability...recommended as a refernence book to those who are associated with the geotechnical engineering profession (undergraduates, post graduates and consulting engineers)..." Prof. Devendra Narain Singh, Indian Inst. of Technology, Mumbai, India "I have yet to see a book that excels the range and depth of Geotechnical Slope Analysis.
..I have failed to find a topic which is not covered and that makes the book almost a single window outlet for the whole range of readership from students to experts and from theoreticians to practicing engineers..." Prof. R.K. Bhandari, New Delhi, India
目次
 1 Aims and overview  slopes, geology and materials *1.1 Introduction *1.2 Overview of recent developments and trends *1.2.1 Increasing frequency and impact of disasters from slope failures and landslides *1.2.2 Climate change, global warming and sea level rise *1.2.3 Built slopes  lessons from the catastrophic impacts of Hurricane Katrina *1.2.4 New developments related to slope analysis *1.2.5 Importance of probabilistic analysis *1.2.6 GISbased methods and analyses *1.2.7 Assessments concerning very large landslides *1.2.8 Landslide frequency related to magnitude *1.2.9 Assessing regional landslide susceptibility and hazard *1.2.10 Development and use of slope stability software *1.2.11 Need to strengthen the fundamentals of geomechanics and slope analysis *1.3 Main aim and scope of this book *1.4 Aims of geotechnical slope analysis *1.5 Natural slopes  regional and sitespecific analyses *1.6 Natural slopes  factors affecting stability *1.7 Built slopes, unreinforced and reinforced *1.7.1 Unreinforced slopes *1.7.2 Reinforced slopes *1.8 Geomorphology and slopes *1.9 Types of slope movement and landslides *1.9.1 Processes and types of slope movement *1.9.2 Prefailure and postfailure movements *1.9.3 Failures of slopes in poorly compacted fill *1.9.4 Some observed data concerning magnitude of movements in soil and rock slopes *1.9.5 Rainfall as a triggering factor for slope failures or for the occurrence of landslides *1.9.6 Available methods for seepage analysis *1.10 Geology and slopes *1.10.1 Fabric *1.10.2 Geological structure *1.10.3 Geological structure and tendency of slope movement *1.10.4 Ground water *1.10.5 Seismic effects *1.10.6 Ground stresses or 'initial' stresses *1.10.7 Weathering *1.10.8 Previous landslide activity *1.11 The nature of soils *1.12 The nature of rocks Appendix to chapter 1 2 Basic geotechnical concepts *2.1 Introduction *2.2 Stress and strain *2.2.1 Elastic (recoverable) stresses and strains in soil and rock *2.2.2 Irrecoverable strains in soil and rock *2.3 The principle of effective stress in soil and rock *2.3.1 Saturated soil *2.3.2 Unsaturated soil *2.3.3 Different types and sources of pore water pressure *2.3.4 Reservoir filling and artesian pressures  an example, the 1963 Vaiont slide *2.4 Shear strength of soils *2.4.1 Dry or saturated soils *2.4.2 Unsaturated soils *2.4.3 Slope failures involving unsaturated soil slopes *2.4.4 Factors influencing shear strength parameters *2.4.5 Measurement of shear strength under different drainage conditions *2.4.6 Peak, ultimate and residual shear strength *2.4.7 Factors influencing residual shear strength *2.4.8 Undrained strength of fissured clays *2.5 MohrCoulomb criterion in terms of principal stresses and stress path concept *2.5.1 Stress paths *2.5.2 Failure plane inclination and intermediate principal stress *2.5.3 Coulomb failure criterion for compression and extension tests *2.6 Shear strength of rocks *2.6.1 A rock mass as a discontinuum *2.6.2 Example of the importance of discontinuities in rock  the occurrence of catastrophic landslides *2.6.3 Griffith theory of rock fracture *2.6.4 Shear failure along rough discontinuity *2.6.5 Continuity of jointing and actual area of contact *2.6.6 Curved strength envelopes *2.6.7 Strength of filled discontinuities *2.6.8 Shear strength of closely jointed or fractured rock *2.6.9 Determination of shear strength *2.7 Plasticity and related concepts *2.8 Excess pore water pressures *2.9 Relationships between drained and undrained strength of cohesive soils *2.9.1 Unique wpq relationships at peak and ultimate strength *2.9.2 Undrained strength and pore pressure parameterat failure *2.9.3 Relative magnitude of drained and undrained strength *2.9.4 "phi 0" concept *2.9.5 Anisotropy of shear strength *2.10 Progressive failure of slopes *2.11 Residual strength and other factors in progressive failure *2.12 Progressive failure and the stress field *2.13 Numerical examples 3 Performance indicators and basic probability concepts *3.1 Introduction and scope *3.1.1 Preliminary decisions concerning type of analysis *3.1.2 Choice of performance indicators *3.1.3 Contents of this chapter *3.2 Deterministic approach *3.2.1 Global and local factors of safety *3.2.2 Critical seismic coefficient as alternative to factor of safety *3.2.3 Progressive failure and system aspects *3.2.4 Performance indicators for stressdeformation analyses *3.2.5 Threshold or allowable values of factor of safety *3.3 Probabilistic approach *3.3.1 Uncertainties and the probabilistic framework *3.3.2 Systematic uncertainties and natural variability of geotechnical parameters *3.4 Reliability index, probability of failure and probability of success (reliability) *3.5 Considering thresholds  minimum reliability index, maximum probability of failure *3.6 Spatial, temporal and system aspects *3.7 Susceptibility, hazard and risk *3.8 Further comments on geotechnical uncertainties *3.8.1 Introduction *3.8.2 Basic statistical parameters *3.8.3 Variability of soil properties and errors *3.9 Variance of F for simple slope problems *3.10 Using probabilistic analysis *3.10.1 Requirements and limitations: discussions during early phase of development *3.10.2 Example of a probabilistic slope study, De Mello (1977) *3.10.3 Errors and probability of failure, Wu and Kraft (1970) Appendix I to chapter 3 * C3I.1 Axioms and rules of probability * C3I.2 Conditional probability and statistical independence * C3I.3 Total probability and Bayes' theorem * C3I.4 Random variables and probability distributions * C3I.5 Moments of a random variable * C3I.6 The normal distribution * C3I.6.1 The standard normal variate * C3I.6.2 Application of standard normal variate * C3I.7 Logarithmic normal distribution * C3I.8 Joint distribution, covariance and correlation * C3I.9 Moments of functions of random variables * C3I.9.1 Sum of variates x1, x2 etc. * C3I.9.2 Product of independent variates x1, x2, x3, etc. * C3I.9.3 First order approximation for general functions Appendix II to chapter 3 * C3II.1 Equations for a capacity  demand model (after Harr, 1977) * C3II.1.1 Safety margin and factor of safety * C3II.1.2 Defining probability of failure and reliability * C3II.1.3 Probability of failure with normal distribution * C3II.1.4 Probability of failure with lognormal distribution * C3II.1.5 Safety margin required for given reliability Appendix III to chapter 3 4 Limit equilibrium methods I  planar failure surfaces *4.1 Introduction to limit equilibrium methods *4.1.1 Methods considered in chapters 4 and 5 *4.1.2 Scope of limit equilibrium studies *4.1.3 The concept of slip surfaces *4.1.4 Defining factor of safety as per concept of limit equilibrium *4.1.5 Alternatives to conventional safety factor *4.1.6 Saturated and unsaturated soil slopes *4.2 Infinite slopes in cohesionless soils *4.2.1 Dry cohesionless soil *4.2.2 Submerged cohesionless soil *4.2.3 Cohesionless soil with seepage parallel to slope *4.2.4 Rapid drawdown of water level in a slope of cohesionless soil *4.3 Infinite slopes in cohesive soil *4.3.1 Seepage through a slope  simple cases *4.3.2 Rapid drawdown of water level in a slope of cohesive soil *4.4 Ultimate inclination of natural slopes *4.5 Vertical cuts in cohesive material *4.5.1 Unsupported height of a vertical cut and tension crack depth *4.5.2 Tension crack depth for use in stability analysis *4.6 Plane failure in rock slopes *4.7 Plane failure with water in tension crack *4.7.1 Conventional analysis *4.7.2 Alternative ways of defining F *4.8 Interpretation of strength data for use in stability calculations *4.9 Twodimensional sliding along one of two joint sets *4.10 Continuity of jointing *4.11 Wedge method or sliding block method of twodimensional analysis *4.11.1 Biplanar slip surface *4.11.2 Triplanar sliding surface *4.12 Failure of threedimensional wedge *4.13 Layered natural deposits and the effect of water pressure *4.13.1 Interbedded sand and clay layers *4.13.2 Interbedded sandstones and shales *4.14 Earth dams  plane failure analyses *4.14.1 Introduction *4.14.2 Simple sliding block analysis *4.14.3 Hydraulic fill dam *4.15 Slurry trench stability *4.15.1 Cohesionless soil *4.15.2 Cohesive soil  soft clay 5 Limit equilibrium methods II  general slip surfaces and beyond critical equilibrium *5.1 Introduction and scope *5.1.1 Drainage conditions  choice between effective stress and total stress analysis *5.1.2 Shapes of slip surfaces *5.1.3 Estimating minimum factor of safety associated with a critical slip surface *5.1.4 Tension crack location and depth as part of optimization process *5.1.5 Back analysis of failed slopes and landslides *5.1.6 The concept of a resistance envelope *5.2 Shortterm stability of clay slopes *5.2.1 Slopes in soft clay  circular failure surfaces *5.2.2 Undrained strength of soft clay in relation to analysis (simple and advanced 'total stress' approaches) *5.2.3 Stiff clays *5.2.4 Proportion of fissures from back analysis *5.3 Friction circle method (c, phi soils) *5.4 Method of slices  Fellenius and Bishop simplified methods *5.4.1 Ordinary method of slices (Fellenius method) *5.4.2 Bishop simplified method *5.4.3 Convergence problems and possible numerical errors *5.4.4 Pore pressures and submergence *5.4.5 Effective stress charts and average pore pressure ratio *5.4.6 Inclusion of additional external forces such as soil reinforcement *5.5 Slip surfaces of arbitrary shape *5.5.1 Janbu's generalised method *5.5.2 Convergence problems *5.5.3 Extended Janbu method (Zhang, 1989) *5.6 Other methods for general slip surfaces *5.6.1 Developments before 1978 *5.6.2 Developments over the last three decades *5.6.3 Availability of geotechnical software for slopes *5.6.4 Nonvertical slices in limit equilibrium analysis *5.6.5 A variation of the method of slices and its application to the 1963 Vaiont slide *5.7 Morgenstern and price method *5.8 Simplified calculation and correction factor *5.9 Some early applications *5.10 Special analyses *5.10.1 Slope underlain by very weak soil layer such as soft clay *5.10.2 Considering calculated F in the context of the method of analysis *5.10.3 Clay slope underlain by waterbearing seam of fine sand *5.11 An early comparison of different limit equilibrium methods *5.12 Threedimensional effects *5.12.1 Developments over the last four decades *5.12.2 Weighted average procedure *5.12.3 Inclusion of end effects *5.12.4 A general threedimensional approach *5.12.5 Lateral curvature (curvature in plan) of a slope *5.12.6 Shape or curvature of slope profile or slope face *5.12.6 An example of 3D factor of safety calculations  analysis of the 1963 Vaiont slide *5.13 'Total stress' versus 'effective stress' analyses *5.14 choice and use of limit equilibrium methods  guidelines *5.14.1 Essential first steps *5.14.2 Choice of method of analysis *5.14.3 Sensitivity of calculated F *5.14.4 Sensitivity of F to tension cracks *5.14.5 The factor of safety in practice *5.14.6 Important considerations in all types of analysis *5.15 Variational calculus and slope stability *5.16 Simulating progressive failure within the framework of limit equilibrium  the effect of stress redistribution in slopes of strainsoftening soil *5.16.1 Applications of the above procedure *5.17 Lessons from case studies of clay slopes *5.17.1 Endofconstruction failures in clay *5.17.2 Longterm failures in intact clays, progressive failure and renewed movement *5.17.3 Longterm failures in fissured clays *5.17.4 Time to failure *5.18 Postfailure behaviour of landslides with particular reference to exceptional rockslides *5.18.1 Broad categories of landslides *5.18.2 Suggested mechanisms for exceptional landslides *5.18.3 Travel angle of landslides based on completed motion after detachment *5.19 Understanding ordinary slope failures beyond critical equilibrium *5.19.1 Stability to critical equilibrium and failure *5.19.2 The importance of very small movements of a failed but undetached mass *5.19.3 Estimating deformations *5.19.4 Rainfallinduced debris flow initiation *5.19.5 Methodology for analysing a rock avalanche *5.20 Improving slope stability *5.20.1 Introduction *5.20.2 Preliminary steps for slope improvement *5.20.3 Brief outline of some stabilisation methods Appendix to chapter 5 * C5.1 Slope analysis including anisotropy * C5.2 For phi = 0 conditions * C5.3 For phi > 0 cases 6 Stressdeformation analyses and their role in slope analysis *6.1 Introduction *6.1.1 Range of advanced numerical methods for stressdeformation analysis *6.1.2 Need for stressdeformation analysis *6.1.3 Specific advantages of stressdeformation analyses *6.1.4 Beginnings of a numerical approach for embankment stress analysis *6.2 The finite element method *6.2.1 Basis of the method *6.2.2 Twodimensional displacement formulation *6.2.3 Review of linear, nonlinear and sophisticated models for FEM Solutions *6.2.4 Features of the simpler models: linear elastic, multilinear elastic, hyperbolic elastic *6.2.5 Features of elastoplastic and viscoplastic models *6.2.6 General comments about all models *6.2.7 Range and complexity of data and parameters required for some sophisticated models *6.3 Material parameters for stress analysis *6.3.1 Isotropic parameters *6.3.2 Anisotropic parameters *6.3.3 Influence of deformation parameters on stresses and deformations *6.4 Incremental body force stresses *6.4.1 Embankment analysis in stages *6.4.2 Multistage excavation in linear and nonlinear material *6.4.3 Simulation of excavation *6.5 Nonlinear material behaviour and special problems *6.5.1 Introduction *6.5.2 Alternative approaches for nonlinear problems *6.5.3 Equations based on hyperbolic response *6.5.4 Joints and discontinuities and interface elements *6.5.5 Incompressibility *6.5.6 Analysis of mining spoil pile stability (Richards et al., 1981
 Richards, 1982) *6.6 Post excavation stresses *6.7 Computed stresses and safety factor *6.8 Modelling progressive failure in slopes of strainsoftening soil *6.8.1 Brief overview of available methods *6.8.2 Overstressed elements in a slope and calculating excess shear stress *6.8.3 Iterative FEM analyses in strainsoftening soil *6.9 Changes in water table and pore pressures *6.10 Limit equilibrium analysis with known falure zone 7 Natural slope analysis considering initial stresses *7.1 Introduction *7.1.1 Importance of insitu stresses *7.1.2 Magnitude and measurement of insitu stresses *7.2 Relationship between K0, shear strength and pore pressure coefficients *7.3 Estimating K0 from the back analysis of a failed slope *7.4 Initial stresses in sloping ground *7.5 Limiting values of K *7.6 Stresses on any plane *7.7 The concept of inherent stability *7.8 Planar failure *7.9 Ultimate stable angle of natural slopes *7.10 Biplanar surfaces of sliding *7.11 Potential slip surface of arbitrary shape *7.12 Example  circular failure surfaces *7.13 Simulating progressive change in stability *7.13.1 The simulation process 385 *7.13.2 Defining an overall factor of safety at any stage *7.13.3 Change in stability considering two alternative modes of progression *7.13.4 An alternative method for simulation of progressive change in the stability of an idealized embankment *7.14 Application to altered slopes *7.15 Rockslide at the site of the vaiont dam and a summary of some analyses carried out after its occurrence *7.15.1 Unusual nature of the catastrophic landslide *7.15.2 Backcalculated shear strength based on critical equilibrium *7.15.3 Shear strength of rock materials *7.15.4 Pore water pressure assumptions *7.16 Simulation of progressive failure based on initial stress approach (Chowdhury, 1978a) *7.16.1 Assumption of a reasonable initial stress field *7.16.2 Estimation of factors of safety *7.16.3 Approximate estimation of accelerations *7.16.4 Approximate estimation of velocities *7.16.5 Supporting comments *7.16.6 Conclusion *7.17 An alternative approach for analysis of the vaiont slide (Hendron and Patton, 1985) *7.17.1 Introduction *7.17.2 2D static analyses *7.17.3 3D static analyses *7.17.4 Analyses for the dynamics of the landslide *7.18 Final comment on the two alternative explanations *7.18.1 Approach based on initial stress field and simulation of progressive failure *7.18.2 Approach based on assumed high artesian pressures and heat  generated pore water pressures 8 Plasticity and shear band analyses  a brief review *8.1 Plasticity *8.1.1 Introduction *8.1.2 Scope *8.1.3 Material idealisation and types of solutions *8.2 Classical analyses *8.2.1 Introduction *8.2.2 Critical profile of a slope with loading on the crest *8.2.3 Finding the nonuniform surcharge for a uniform slope of given critical inclination *8.2.4 Slopes curved in plan *8.2.5 Uniform slope of soil in which shear strength increases with depth *8.3 Limit analysis *8.3.1 Upper and lower bound theorems *8.3.2 Examplea vertical slope *8.3.3 Lower bound solution *8.3.4 Scope of solutions for general cases *8.3.5 Extension of solutions to more realistic or complex problems *8.3.6 Possible future extension to modeling of progressive failure *8.3.7 Extension of upper bound method *8.4 Plasticity solution by finite elements *8.4.1 Introduction *8.4.2 Strength reduction technique *8.4.3 Nonhomogeneous slopes and realistic material behaviour *8.4.4 Simple and advanced soil models *8.4.5 A slope in homogeneous soil resting on a rough base *8.5 Shear band concept *8.5.1 Questions relevant to formation and significance of shear bands or slip surfaces *8.5.2 Some relevant applications reported in theliterature *8.5.3 Cases in which internal deformations of soil mass must be considered *8.6 Palmer and rice approach  the shear box problem *8.6.1 Introduction *8.6.2 Energy balance equation *8.7 Long shear box and infinite slope *8.7.1 Long shear box *8.7.2 Long slope with a step or cut *8.8 Nonuniform shear stress on band *8.8.1 Introduction *8.8.2 Long shear box *8.8.3 Long slope with step or cut *8.8.4 Relatively flat slope  gravitational stress less than residual strength *8.9 Shear band of arbitrary inclination (after Chowdhury, 1978b) *8.9.1 Introduction *8.9.2 Considering the energy balance *8.9.3 The propagation criterion *8.9.4 Results for an example case *8.10 Rate of propagation *8.11 A simple progressive failure model *8.12 Application of shear band concepts Appendix to chapter 8 * C8.1 Slope studies for anisotropic soil 9 Earthquake effects and seismic slope analysis *9.1 Seismic slope stability and deformations  an introduction *9.1.1 Aims and scope *9.1.2 Introducing pseudostatic analysis *9.1.3 Critical seismic coefficient (or yield value of seismic coefficient) *9.1.4 Introducing Newmark approach of sliding block analysis *9.1.5 Three stages of change in stability and permanent deformation *9.2 Soil behaviour under cyclic loading conditions *9.2.1 Introduction *9.2.2 Cyclic shear strength from laboratory tests *9.2.3 Field tests and model tests *9.2.4 Shear strength parameters for seismic slope analysis *9.2.5 Rate effects on the shear strength along existing slip surfaces *9.3 Seismicallyinduced soil liquefaction and residual strength of cohesionless soil *9.3.1 Seismic liquefaction phenomena *9.3.2 Liquefactionrelated strains and deformations *9.3.3 Undrained residual shear strength *9.3.4 Flow liquefaction contrasted with cyclic mobility *9.4 Pseudostatic analysis *9.4.1 Planar slip surfaces *9.4.2 Circular slip surface in saturated soil slope *9.4.3 Slip surfaces of arbitrary shape *9.4.4 Seismic coefficient and factor of safety for pseudostatic analysis *9.4.5 Beyond pseudostatic analysis *9.5 Critical seismic coefficient *9.5.1 Introduction  the range of methods and solutions *9.5.2 Critical seismic coefficient for slip surfaces of planar or log spiral shapes *9.5.3 Critical seismic coefficient for circular slip surface *9.5.4 Critical seismic coefficient for homogeneous slope considering slip surface of arbitrary shape *9.6 Sliding block solution for permanent displacements *9.6.1 The Newmark approach *9.6.2 Typical estimated values of seismic displacement *9.6.3 Considering variable critical seismic coefficient *9.7 Empirical/regression equations for permanent displacements *9.7.1 Introduction and scope of equations from regression analysis *9.7.2 An equation based on (i) the ratio of critical seismic coefficient and peak ground acceleration coefficient and (ii) the predominant period *9.7.3 An equation based only on the ratio of critical seismic coefficient and peak ground acceleration coefficient *9.7.4 An equation based on arias intensity and critical seismic acceleration *9.7.5 Seismic Destructiveness Potential Factor and its use in numerical analyses *9.8 Dynamic analyses *9.8.1 Introduction *9.8.2 Basic concepts and equations *9.8.3 Example of analyses for a failed dam *9.8.4 Other procedures developed and used in the 1970s *9.8.5 The SeedLeeIdriss procedure for dams or embankments which include saturated cohesionless materials *9.8.6 Analysis of Lower San Fernando Dam  Seed's approach *9.8.7 Alternative explanation for failure of Lower San Fernando Dam *9.8.8 Effective stress approach for analysis of Lower San Fernando Dam *9.9 Occurrence of earthquakeinduced landslides *9.9.1 Landslides related to some major earthquakes  key findings *9.9.2 Some empirical relationships between earthquake magnitude M, landslide volume V, and landslide area A *9.9.3 Summary of a subsequent study (Keefer, 2007) *9.9.4 Topographic amplification effects *9.10 Effect of earthquakes on earth dams and embankments *9.10.1 Examples of dams that failed during earthquakes *9.10.2 Example of a dam surviving a strong earthquake *9.10.3 Failure modes and earthquake resistant design *9.11 Role of probabilistic analysis *9.11.1 Numerous uncertainties *9.11.2 Probability of failure conditional on earthquake occurrence *9.11.3 Probability of failure over the design life of a slope *9.11.4 Estimating annual probability of earthquake occurrence *9.11.5 Probability of landsliding based on observation and calculated values *9.11.6 Increase in existing landslide hazard due to earthquakes Appendix to chapter 9 Appendix to chapter 9 * C9.1 Some discussions during the period (19601973) concerning the seismic coefficients * C9.1.1 Factors influencing pseudostatic factor of safety * C9.1.2 Estimating seismic coefficient based on viscoelastic response analysis * C9.1.3 Seismic coefficients related to inertia forces 10 Probabilistic approaches and reliability analyses *10.1 Basic probabilistic approach for slopes *10.1.1 Introduction *10.1.2 Numerical examples *10.1.3 Aspects of probabilistic analysis covered in published work  a sample *10.2 Elements of a basic probabilistic approach *10.2.1 Recalling the basic resistance  load probability model *10.2.2 Probabilistic approach based on general limit equilibrium models of slope stability *10.2.3 Probability distribution of a function of several variables such as the factor of safety, F *10.3 The big picture  role and benefitsof a probabilistic approach *10.4 Numerical methods for evaluating statistical moments of factor of safety or for simulating its probability distribution *10.4.1 First Order Second Moment Method (FOSM) *10.4.2 Point Estimate Method or Rosenblueth method (PEM) *10.4.3 MonteCarlo Simulation Method (MSM) *10.4.4 Summing up  comparison of results from use of different methods *10.5 Essential questions and elementary calculations for probabilistic analysis *10.5.1 Select random variables: which parametersare significant? *10.5.2 Statistical moments of F: which numerical methods are to be used? *10.5.3 Alternative definition of reliability index: is a simple definition of reliability index good enough? *10.5.4 Meaning of probability of failure as usually defined *10.5.5 Options for evaluating probability of failure based on the assumption that F follows a normal probability distribution *10.5.6 Probability distribution of F: which PDF to assume for F, Normal or Lognormal? *10.5.7 Probability of failure based on Lognormal distribution *10.5.8 Estimating standard deviations of basic variables *10.5.9 Final comment *10.6 Uncertainty components and issues for uncertainty analysis *10.6.1 Introduction *10.6.2 Spatial variation of a geotechnical parameter *10.6.3 Length of slope failure  insight provided by spatial variability *10.6.4 Systematic uncertainty of a geotechnical parameter *10.6.5 Summing up *10.7 Probability of successive failures *10.7.1 Introduction *10.7.2 Formulation in terms of safety margins along two discontinuities within a slope *10.7.3 Joint normal distribution *10.7.4 Trend of results for probability of successive failure along rock discontinuities *10.7.5 Trend of results for probability of successive failures in a soil slope *10.8 Systems reliability *10.9 Probability of progressive failure along a slip surface *10.9.1 Basic model considering local safety margins *10.9.2 Advanced model for probability of sliding by progressive failure *10.9.3 Further development of the model for probability of sliding by progressive failure *10.10 Simulation of sliding probability of a progressively failing slope *10.11 Bayesian updating *10.11.1 Introduction *10.11.2 Updating the reliability of an opencut mining slope *10.11.3 Backanalysis through reliability updating *10.12 Reliability analysis for a threedimensional slope problem *10.13 Target failure probabilities *10.13.1 Introduction *10.13.2 Suggested target values of reliability index and failure probability for slopes *10.13.3 Discussion and limitations *10.14 Hazard and risk concepts and sitespecific assessments *10.14.1 The basic terminology *10.14.2 Types of risk and risk assessments *10.14.3 Acceptable or tolerable risk levels *10.14.4 Calculations and simple examples concerning risk *10.15 Regional assessment of hazard and risk *10.15.1 Introduction *10.15.2 Purpose *10.15.3 Key assumptions in regional studies *10.15.4 Defining the scope *10.15.5 Qualitative and quantitative approaches for regional analysis *10.15.6 Role of an observational approach  monitoring of slopes and landslides *10.16 Additional numerical examples As described for Case (a), calculations are done in a tabular form and presented in Appendix to chapter 10 11 Case studies of urban slope stability *11.1 Aims of this chapter *11.2 Regional perspective *11.3 Landslide inventory *11.4 Stability analyses of three sites *11.4.1 Introduction *11.4.2 Available information and assumptions *11.4.3 Failure mechanism *11.4.4 Drainage conditions *11.4.5 Observed shapes of landslides and slip surfaces *11.4.6 Software used for the Case Studies *11.5 Case study 1  site 64 in the suburb of Scarborough *11.5.1 Introduction *11.5.2 Background *11.5.3 Geotechnical model for Site 64 *11.5.4 Pore water pressure assumptions *11.5.5 Results of analysis *11.5.6 Shear strength at failure on the basis of the above analyses *11.6 Case study 2  site 77, Morrison Avenue, Wombarra *11.6.1 Introduction *11.6.2 Background *11.6.3 Geotechnical model for Site 77 *11.6.4 Pore water pressure assumptions *11.6.5 Results of analyses *11.6.6 Shear strength at failure based on resultsof analyses *11.7 Case study 3  site 134, Woonona Heights *11.7.1 Introduction *11.7.2 Background *11.7.3 Geotechnical model for site 134 *11.7.4 Pore water pressure assumptions *11.7.5 Results of analyses *11.8 Concluding remarks on the three case studies *11.9 Landslidetriggering rainfall *11.9.1 Rainfall as triggering factor  thresholdand variability *11.9.2 Analyses of the 1998 rainstorm and associated landsliding *11.10 Landslide susceptibility and hazard *11.10.1 Introduction and scope *11.10.2 Regional risk assessment outside the scope of this chapter *11.10.3 Datasets relevant to the study area *11.10.4 Knowledge based approach and Data Mining (DM) model *11.10.5 Analysis of DM results and landslide susceptibility zoning *11.10.6 Landslide hazard assessment and zoning *11.11 Observational approach and monitoring *11.11.1 Introduction and definition *11.11.2 Why an observational approach? *1.11.3 Example of landslide management based on monitoring *11.11.4 Field monitoring  periodic *11.11.5 Field monitoring  continuous *11.12 Concluding remarks 12 Summing up *12.1 Introduction and brief overview *12.2 Seeking emerging themes *12.3 Geotechnical slope analysis in a regional context *12.4 Choice between conventional and advanced methods of analysis *12.5 Understanding and modelling important phenomena *12.6 Appropriate use of probabilistic analysis *12.7 Observational approach *12.8 Meeting emerging challenges *12.9 Concluding remarks Appendix I Shear strength parameters of residual soils, weathered rocks and related minerals Appendix II Slope stability charts and their use for different conditions including rapid draw down * AII.1 Chart for parameter m in Bishop simplified method (also Janbu's method) * AII.2 Introduction to slope stability charts * AII.3 Taylor's charts and their use * AII.3.1 Special conditions considered by Taylor (1948) * AII.4 Cousins' (1977) charts  studies in terms of effective stress * AII.5 Example concerning use of cousins' charts * AII.6 Charts by Hoek (1970) and Hoek and Bray (1974, 1977) * AII.7 Rapid draw downeffective stress approach (after Bishop, 1954 and Skempton, 1954) * AII.8 Construction pore pressures in impervious fill of earth dam (after Bishop, 1954) Appendix III Morgenstern and price approach  some additional particulars * AIII.1 Side force assumptions * AIII.2 Admissibility criteria for morgenstern and price solution * AIII.3 Typical comparisons * AIII.3.1 Brilliant cut slide * AIII.3.2 Navdocks example problem * AIII.4 Conclusions References Subject index Colour plates
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