Multiannual macroeconomic programming techniques for developing economies

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書誌事項

Multiannual macroeconomic programming techniques for developing economies

Paul Beckerman

World Scientific, c2010

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注記

Bibliography: p. 405-407

Includes index

内容説明・目次

内容説明

This book describes practical techniques to formulate multiannual macroeconomic projections for developing economies. The approach is broadly similar to that of well-known financial-programming "models", but some of the material, including solution procedures for the external and fiscal projections and the external-debt projection methodology, is innovative. The basic aim of macroeconomic programming exercises is to determine whether a quantitatively specified macroeconomic and government-expenditure policy program would be "financially feasible" - that is, consistent over time with external and internal financing likely to be available. Exercises of the kind described here formulate national-, external-, fiscal-, and monetary-accounts projections, based on (i) assumed behavioral parameters; (ii) assumed "exogenous" world conditions and internal variables; (iii) programmed macroeconomic objectives such as real growth, inflation, and exchange-rate evolution; (iv) programmed real government expenditure; (v) an external-debt program; and (vi) data for the "base" year preceding the projection period. The projections include estimates of the external and internal financing the public sector and economy as a whole would require, which may be evaluated for feasibility. Among other applications, macroeconomic programming exercises may be used to help gauge the financial feasibility of development and poverty-reduction objectives (like the UN Millennium Development Goals), or to address external-debt "sustainability".

目次

  • Overview of the Projection Solution Procedure
  • Basic Programming Variables
  • Programming Variables: Non-Interest Government Expenditure Programs
  • Programming of External Debt and Internal Government Debt
  • National-Expenditure Accounts Projections
  • External-Accounts Projections
  • Fiscal-Accounts Projections
  • Monetary-Accounts Projections
  • Practical Programming and Projection Issues.

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