Methods of forecasting American election outcomes : studies in strategies of prediction
著者
書誌事項
Methods of forecasting American election outcomes : studies in strategies of prediction
E. Mellen, c2010
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注記
Includes bibliographical references and index
内容説明・目次
内容説明
This interdisciplinary monograph analyzes presidential and legislative elections themes. Topics covered in the work include a critical discussion of all the forecasting models used in the past 20 years, and an examination of the forecasting of Presidential elections from an engineering and mathematical point of view, and actual mathematical equations between predicted votes and the polls. The first chapter deals with a detailed and critical discussion of all the forecasting models used in the past 20 years. The second chapter ranks the relative efficiency of most of the Presidents using well known DEA methodology. The third chapter provides actual mathematical equations between predicted votes and the polls. To that extent, this paper is more mathematical. The fourth chapter of this title classifies all the Presidential election prediction models into two categories (using historical data and well known regression analysis models - the first kind and the models that use very well known and popular meta-analysis-the second kind). The fifth chapter looks at the forecasting of presidential elections from engineering and mathematical point of view.
The sixth chapter looks at the American presidential elections from the point of view of 'real world' politicians based on actual surveys. This will give a different outlook of presidential elections to the reader of the monograph. The seventh chapter deals with legislative campaigns rather than the presidential elections.
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