Southern Africa 2020 : five scenarios
著者
書誌事項
Southern Africa 2020 : five scenarios
Institute for Global Dialogue , Friedrich Ebert Stiftung, 2002
大学図書館所蔵 全1件
  青森
  岩手
  宮城
  秋田
  山形
  福島
  茨城
  栃木
  群馬
  埼玉
  千葉
  東京
  神奈川
  新潟
  富山
  石川
  福井
  山梨
  長野
  岐阜
  静岡
  愛知
  三重
  滋賀
  京都
  大阪
  兵庫
  奈良
  和歌山
  鳥取
  島根
  岡山
  広島
  山口
  徳島
  香川
  愛媛
  高知
  福岡
  佐賀
  長崎
  熊本
  大分
  宮崎
  鹿児島
  沖縄
  韓国
  中国
  タイ
  イギリス
  ドイツ
  スイス
  フランス
  ベルギー
  オランダ
  スウェーデン
  ノルウェー
  アメリカ
内容説明・目次
内容説明
It is the year 2020. Has violent conflict turned most of southern Africa into An 'arc of chaos', marked by collapsed states and widespread starvation? Has sustained economic growth, guide by a new generation of committed leaders, begun to make inroads into poverty and inequality? Or have corrupt elites allowed the region to slide into decay? Are these futures equally plausible? Where would the pats leading to them diverge? And what do they tell us about the forces already at the work in the region? Some answers to these tantalizing questions may be found in this book. It records the results of a major project in which a team of analysts assembled by the Johannesburg-based Institute for global dialogue and the South Africa office of the Friedrich Ebert Stiftung used the scenario building technique to clarify the choices facing the religion's decision makers. In a complex exercise stretching over several years, the IGD/FES team, assisted by regional reference groups, evolved five scenarios in which different driving forces propel the region to very different futures.
They have been verbally presented to audiences throughout the region; however, the complete scenarios, as well as all their supporting material, appear for the first time in this volume. While as noted in an explanatory introduction, scenarios are fascinating in themselves, their ultimate purpose is not to purpose is not to predict the future, but to provide a clearer picture of the forces currently at work in the are under review.
目次
- Introduction
- the base scenario
- scenario 1 - danger! ingozi! kotsi!
- scenario 2 - market madness
- scenario 3 - regional renaissance
- scenario 4 - the slow slide
- scenario 5 - poor but proud.
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