Southern Africa 2020 : five scenarios

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Southern Africa 2020 : five scenarios

developed by the Institue for Global Dialogue and the Friedrich Ebert Stiftung

Institute for Global Dialogue , Friedrich Ebert Stiftung, 2002

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Description

It is the year 2020. Has violent conflict turned most of southern Africa into An 'arc of chaos', marked by collapsed states and widespread starvation? Has sustained economic growth, guide by a new generation of committed leaders, begun to make inroads into poverty and inequality? Or have corrupt elites allowed the region to slide into decay? Are these futures equally plausible? Where would the pats leading to them diverge? And what do they tell us about the forces already at the work in the region? Some answers to these tantalizing questions may be found in this book. It records the results of a major project in which a team of analysts assembled by the Johannesburg-based Institute for global dialogue and the South Africa office of the Friedrich Ebert Stiftung used the scenario building technique to clarify the choices facing the religion's decision makers. In a complex exercise stretching over several years, the IGD/FES team, assisted by regional reference groups, evolved five scenarios in which different driving forces propel the region to very different futures. They have been verbally presented to audiences throughout the region; however, the complete scenarios, as well as all their supporting material, appear for the first time in this volume. While as noted in an explanatory introduction, scenarios are fascinating in themselves, their ultimate purpose is not to purpose is not to predict the future, but to provide a clearer picture of the forces currently at work in the are under review.

Table of Contents

  • Introduction
  • the base scenario
  • scenario 1 - danger! ingozi! kotsi!
  • scenario 2 - market madness
  • scenario 3 - regional renaissance
  • scenario 4 - the slow slide
  • scenario 5 - poor but proud.

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